Greenko Group GKO.L
Greenko Group is trading below the moving 50 day average and below the moving 200 day average on above-average volume.
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7 AIM shares targeted for success this year.
442 of 900
Overall AIM Rating
9 of 10
27 Jan 2015
22 Jan 2015
10 Dec 2014
9 Dec 2014
9 Dec 2014
9 Dec 2014
4 Dec 2014
analysis of trading update at 135p by thirty fifty twenty
Fri, 24 Oct 2014 12:59:00 GMT
wow - I think this reads great!!
sales up 120%, ebitda up 130%, debts cost down so eps up even more??
an even balance between wind and hydro
projects on time, on budget etc....
infrastrure built so additional is incremental costs and time - great news!
mgt team delivering on previous promises
economic backdrop favourable
very confident of future....
of course there are risks ... india, currency, cracks in dam?, no wind, no monsoon
(actually that's quite a lot LOL!!)
but seems to me to be a growth company in a growth sector in a growth economy!! 3G!!!
I think the best thing re the trading update is that profits on track for expectations
EVEN THOUGH monsoon started late!!
so this means that the rest is ahead of expectations
which gives some upside to H2...
its great if they have - a little reserve in the tank!!
also there is the benefit of scale with ebitda increasing faster than sales
this may not continue indefinately given that the ebitda is already a huge %
and with growth rates > 100% its superb if ebitda grwoth even matches sales growth
additionally the debt refinancing means that eps growth will be facilitated
its great risk/reward for equity shareholders to be highly geared in a growth stock
especially as the debt is refinanced at a much cheaper rate
and you'd imagine debt costs will only get cheaper for them as they become a 1bn established business
I think this could move quickly now as eps of 12p for a 3G (growth growth growth) stock
how many companies are there with 100% eps growth, and doubling again in following 2 years and growth after that sitting on a p/e of 11-12 times
i was keen when the price was > 170p
as its been a little bit of a shock to see the price as low as 130p
the trading update give confidence that this was part of the market shake out
(maybe AIM index funds selling ?) (maybe similar to the 140p fall out earlier in the summer)
I'm happier to buy now at 140p than Monday at 136p!
All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
GKO is in my top 5 holdings
By thirty fifty twenty
debt financing done at 170p by thirty fifty twenty
Mon, 04 Aug 2014 07:45:00 GMT
this is great news that they got such a level of interest and commitment for very substantial funds US dollar based.... the tone of the statement is very positive too.
market sentiment seems very positive towards india given rises in indian related stocks
and GKO do have one off opportunity to grab share of the energy market and its now evident that investors are prepared to back them...
the upside is (almost) limitless
if GKO get backing they find sites, build assets, make money
and india's needs are sooo far short of current capacity that I say 'limitless'
certainly in terms of corporate growth this to me now becomes possible of 10 years at over 20% eps growth p.a.
All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
GKO is in my top5 hldgs By thirty fifty twenty
expnasion at 170p by thirty fifty twenty
Mon, 14 Jul 2014 12:27:00 GMT
RNS seems to be good news and small price rise today after recent rises
I guess they might be looking at securitising some of the revenue from current operating power plants as a cheaper source of finance than pure project debt finance or equity dilution when price is arguable low.
Singapore Gvt Fund were able to convert from c. 130p to 237p (from memory)
so you might say that realistic price was 2/3rd away along that curve (given it was 3 years out)
and it had expensive debt in the meantime at 10% I think
so great that they looking at various options
it all means expansion and that people happy to invest in the mgt team
All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
GKO is in my top5 hldgs By thirty fifty twenty
joined the party by Binkley
Thu, 03 Jul 2014 09:34:00 GMT
Morning all, ive been watching this for a while now and very interesting proposition with good everything really. So bought in today and think this is a good solid medium t long term prospect from my green portfolio.
binks By Binkley
Volume by wishful thinking
Wed, 19 Feb 2014 17:30:00 GMT
Big volume today - seems that after a clear out the often stock rises? By wishful thinking
GKO prospective Broker P/E.... by oldjoe1
Mon, 09 Dec 2013 14:27:00 GMT
Interesting to see broker Singer have a
prospective P/E of only 11.4 to 2015 (176% EPS growth)
and a PEG of .06
NAV figure per share looks interesting aswel.
Looks very cheap to me and plenty of potential.
Greenko Group PLC
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
N+1 Singer [R]
06-12-13 BUY 10.15 4.39
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Consensus 34.31 12.94 0.00
Norm. EPS 176.82%
Dividend Yield %
Dividend Cover x
Net Asset Value 2014 132.43p p
hemscott. By oldjoe1
GKO...... CHART BREAKOUT by oldjoe1
Mon, 09 Dec 2013 11:48:00 GMT
From a technical point of view for
the chartists among us an interesting
Re: Daily Mail-Midas by oldjoe1
Mon, 09 Dec 2013 08:54:00 GMT
Buy shares in Greenko Group, the Mail on Sunday's Midas column recommended. The renewable energy company has a massive opportunity to supply power to India, where green energy is cheaper than coal and gas. The country has a big fuel shortage and has to import fuels. Greenko's wind farms and biomass plants can fill the gap. After some bumpy early days on AIM from 2007, sentiment on Greenko has strengthened and Singapore has invested £100m in the company. At 148p, the shares offer growth potential in the next year and beyond.
Daily Mail-Midas by nk1999
Sun, 08 Dec 2013 11:15:00 GMT
Buy tip today at 148p.
I am still sceptical.
nk By nk1999
Ahead of Schedule by wishful thinking
Mon, 11 Nov 2013 08:06:00 GMT
Great announcement today. A doubling of operating MW this year and on track for the 1,000 MW by 2015 promised some years ago. Surely this stock will soon get the attention of buyers and surpass its 2011 level of £2.25 per share? IMHO
11 November 2013
Greenko Group plc
("Greenko" or "the Company")
Wind Farm Commissioned
Greenko, the Indian developer, owner and operator of clean energy projects, is pleased to announce that Phase-1 (51.2 MW) of its Balavenkatpuram wind farm has been commissioned. This takes Greenko's total generating portfolio to 411 MW, a 38% increase since April 2013.
Balavenkatpuram Phase-1 is the third wind farm Greenko has commissioned this year and the project was completed one month ahead of schedule. The project has secured a 25-year power purchase agreement with the state of Andhra Pradesh and benefits from the recently increased tariff, along with the Generation Based Incentive. The total Phase-1 cost was approximately 40 million and uses the enhanced GE 1.6 XLE turbine, which has the potential to deliver close to a 30% capacity factor in an average year.
The grid connection for the site's full capacity of 200 MW has also been completed. Phase-2 (50.0 MW) using Gamesa's large G97 turbine, which has a 90m hub height and 97m diameter blades, is currently under construction and on schedule. The Group's strategy of building large scale wind farms in a phased manner, using the latest low wind speed turbine technology connected to the high voltage transmission grid, means it is able to deliver significant, predictable and profitable growth.
As previously announced, Greenko's performance remains in line with expectations. The early monsoon helped southern hydro and wind power generation, while northern hydro is running well, with good plant availability.
Commenting on the project, Anil Chalamalasetty, CEO of Greenko, said: "We are delighted to be commissioning Phase-1 ahead of schedule. Our first two wind farms refined our modular approach to wind farm construction, which is now delivering substantial and predictable growth. As a result, we should double our generating capacity this financial year to 600 MW and remain in line to hit our 2015 target of 1,000 MW."
By wishful thinking
Re: Interest & Interest cover by wishful thinking
Mon, 29 Jul 2013 13:34:00 GMT
Not sure you are taking into account the fact that this is a company still developing many of its assets and is therefore difficult to compare to mature utilities.
I understand project finance in India for such Hydro and Wind assets is typically on a 70:30 debt equity or even higher at 80.20 so suspect GKO has lots of headroom. Sadly interest rates are still high in India.
I would prefer debt to be raised to accelerate growth rather than dilute shareholders.
I sure dividends will flow when the current projects are developed and generating cash, but why pay dividends when borrowings need to be so high?
My only frustration with GKO is that the nature of their business means projects take ages to build!
By wishful thinking
Interest & Interest cover by kingpin_z
Mon, 29 Jul 2013 12:45:00 GMT
Just passing by.
I looked at this company a year ago but forgotten why I left it and did not invest.
After having a glance at the latest and most recent results... I remembered why.
A big concern for me here was not so much the level of debt (although at close to 42% of Equity is an issue in itself), but more so the amount of interest cover from the operating profit. With interest running at barely one and a half times EBIT... that is not comfortable at all and is trending in the wrong direction.
It is for the above reason there are no dividends, the company preferring to finance debt than return money to shareholders (for now), whether this changes in future I guess remains to be seen... though dividends are an incentive to invest, if they're are no dividends... especially for a utility, there is little incentive and hence why the share price has been so stagnant for long periods of time.
For the old saying goes; - "If you look after the income, the capital will take care of itself."
The share price will change considerably once the BoD reduce the liability overhead and start rewarding investors via dividends, that too may make the institutionals become a consideration. By kingpin_z
Mop up by wishful thinking
Fri, 31 May 2013 08:59:00 GMT
Great to see yesterday's news that the big boys are backing this stock again. Hopefully any potentially spare stock has now been mopped up and the SP can move forward to reflect the value of the asset base. IMHO By wishful thinking
Another link to Global Warming article by Valuespotter
Fri, 24 May 2013 20:15:00 GMT
Sorry if the links in my last 2 posts were bad. I've tested this one and it works OK:
Global warming's terrifying new math by Valuespotter
Fri, 24 May 2013 20:09:00 GMT
Sorry - that link doesn't seem to work. Try this one:
increased output by josborne
Wed, 28 Jan 2015 09:08:48 GMT
The BOD may have had the collapse in the shareprice on their mind. Expecting good results in March, hopefully there will be a bit more stability in the energy market by then.
rise today by ecovest
Tue, 27 Jan 2015 20:55:41 GMT
Good to see RNS confirming that plenty of demand still out there and expansion has been on course.
RE: Re: SP by Bigprofit
Mon, 26 Jan 2015 12:45:07 GMT
I have been watching this share for days. There was an overhang of 275k and the MMs tried everything to generate some buyers. Moves up to show there was demand, before conceding actually there is little demand and moving the price down in large moves, but to no avail and they made things worse, as there were more sales. Now on friday sales of 4m. Surely the price is going to fall in the short-term, but this will represent a great entry point for a share that has fantastic medium/long term potential. Forget the P/E and look at the PEG.
Obama by thiswillhurt
Sun, 25 Jan 2015 17:21:02 GMT
I'm expecting that the talks will focus peeps attention and move us over 125.00, this coming week....Then onwards and upwards.
EJL7 by SchiffJnr
Fri, 23 Jan 2015 17:09:10 GMT
Blimey! I wonder who is selling up and for why?
Re: SP by EJL7
Fri, 23 Jan 2015 11:42:05 GMT
Here's your reason for share weakness in last week or so. MM's took share down close to 30% so that they could accommodate the 4 million share seller-expect to see RNS on Mon. So it seems that the institutions get ripped off just like the pi's-also just highlights the illiquidity of the share-keep this in mind!
GKO SP by Steeltrader
Thu, 22 Jan 2015 20:22:00 GMT
I am in this for the long turn and can't see it falling and staying below 100 so am ready to top up if it crosses that line.
price fall by josborne
Thu, 22 Jan 2015 20:13:23 GMT
Seems fairly exteme.. any other news out there? I thought the drive for renewable may have propped it up a little:
long term hold by mono51
Thu, 22 Jan 2015 18:46:42 GMT
Quality business and suffering from the oil price fall etc but it will come back. Nice if it could start paying a divi, why not?
RE: SP fall. by kulabkhan
Wed, 21 Jan 2015 10:31:39 GMT
EJL7 and Schiff Excellent posts, sum up the background to GKO. On a macro scale, growth in India is likely to continue, along with power shortages. There are just two potential downsides one is competing oil and coal if prices depress. The other is a setback in the World economy and deflation. However you could say that about 99% of stocks in the world stock market ! Greenko is as well placed as any in a market with shortages and a growing market.
RE: SP fall by EJL7
Tue, 20 Jan 2015 16:33:44 GMT
Hi Schiff-long time. Emailed Tavistock with concerns about sp fall, wondering if they were aware of anything. Received email back stating the following: "We are not aware of any company specific reasons for the share price performance. As you know, the Interims RNS only a few weeks ago in early December reported strong gains across all operational and financial metrics, and confirmed that GKO remains very optimistic about the sustainability of its operational and financial performance. Following the change in its financial year, we would expect GKO to report results for the year to 31 December 2014 before the end of March 2015. In this regard, we understand that house broker Arden’s forecasts for the 9 months to 31/12/14 are revenue of US$97m, operating profit of US$59m and adjusted PBT of US$30m, and for the 12 months to 31/12/15 their current forecasts are US$185m, US$126m and US$61m respectively." Hope this helps. The Indian market has been on a tear, so my hunch is that the sharp drop in oil is making alternatives less competitive.
SP fall by SchiffJnr
Tue, 20 Jan 2015 10:43:57 GMT
I agree with the sentiment on here. Energy shares will take a hit over the coming months as the oil price finally finds a floor. I'd be worried if I held investments in a leveraged up american shale gas company, but I'm far less worried holding Greenko. They are snapping up bargins and growing their energy capacity aggressively. Thnaks to the measures finally being put in place by Modi, the Indian Economy is growing well. As Industry grows, demand for energy will grow. Power in India is a Joke. The place is crying out for it. For what its worth, I actually think the fall in the SP yesterday was driven not be the ongoing fall in oil, but more so the Indian Government's decision to re do the auctions for coal mining licences. This may lead to greater coal powered energy which is a direct competitor to Greenko. None the less, the way India is growing they need all the energy they can get.
bizarre by josborne
Tue, 20 Jan 2015 08:19:47 GMT
Looks to be in its way back up.
GKO by josborne
Mon, 19 Jan 2015 22:10:17 GMT
Agreed. I can only assume it's general negative sentiment for the energy industry. Capacity is increasing rapidly and there's an enormous demand. Seems very cheap at these prices.
GKO by Steeltrader
Mon, 19 Jan 2015 20:37:59 GMT
I don't see any justifiable reason for this low SP with a forward PE of 9, I have bought in today and am going to hold for a long time, if it drops below 115 I am going to top up