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  • analysis of trading update at 135p by thirty fifty twenty
    Fri, 24 Oct 2014 12:59:00 GMT

    wow - I think this reads great!!

    sales up 120%, ebitda up 130%, debts cost down so eps up even more??
    an even balance between wind and hydro
    projects on time, on budget etc....
    infrastrure built so additional is incremental costs and time - great news!
    mgt team delivering on previous promises
    economic backdrop favourable
    very confident of future....

    of course there are risks ... india, currency, cracks in dam?, no wind, no monsoon
    (actually that's quite a lot LOL!!)
    but seems to me to be a growth company in a growth sector in a growth economy!! 3G!!!


    I think the best thing re the trading update is that profits on track for expectations
    EVEN THOUGH monsoon started late!!
    so this means that the rest is ahead of expectations
    which gives some upside to H2...
    its great if they have - a little reserve in the tank!!

    also there is the benefit of scale with ebitda increasing faster than sales
    this may not continue indefinately given that the ebitda is already a huge %
    and with growth rates > 100% its superb if ebitda grwoth even matches sales growth

    additionally the debt refinancing means that eps growth will be facilitated
    its great risk/reward for equity shareholders to be highly geared in a growth stock
    especially as the debt is refinanced at a much cheaper rate
    and you'd imagine debt costs will only get cheaper for them as they become a €1bn established business

    I think this could move quickly now as eps of 12p for a 3G (growth growth growth) stock
    how many companies are there with 100% eps growth, and doubling again in following 2 years and growth after that sitting on a p/e of 11-12 times

    i was keen when the price was > 170p
    as its been a little bit of a shock to see the price as low as 130p
    the trading update give confidence that this was part of the market shake out
    (maybe AIM index funds selling ?) (maybe similar to the 140p fall out earlier in the summer)


    I'm happier to buy now at 140p than Monday at 136p!


    All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
    GKO is in my top 5 holdings
    By thirty fifty twenty
  • debt financing done at 170p by thirty fifty twenty
    Mon, 04 Aug 2014 07:45:00 GMT

    this is great news that they got such a level of interest and commitment for very substantial funds US dollar based.... the tone of the statement is very positive too.
    market sentiment seems very positive towards india given rises in indian related stocks
    and GKO do have one off opportunity to grab share of the energy market and its now evident that investors are prepared to back them...

    the upside is (almost) limitless
    if GKO get backing they find sites, build assets, make money
    and india's needs are sooo far short of current capacity that I say 'limitless'
    certainly in terms of corporate growth this to me now becomes possible of 10 years at over 20% eps growth p.a.


    All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
    GKO is in my top5 hldgs By thirty fifty twenty
  • expnasion at 170p by thirty fifty twenty
    Mon, 14 Jul 2014 12:27:00 GMT

    RNS seems to be good news and small price rise today after recent rises
    I guess they might be looking at securitising some of the revenue from current operating power plants as a cheaper source of finance than pure project debt finance or equity dilution when price is arguable low.

    Singapore Gvt Fund were able to convert from c. 130p to 237p (from memory)
    so you might say that realistic price was 2/3rd away along that curve (given it was 3 years out)
    and it had expensive debt in the meantime at 10% I think

    so great that they looking at various options
    it all means expansion and that people happy to invest in the mgt team


    All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
    GKO is in my top5 hldgs By thirty fifty twenty
  • joined the party by Binkley
    Thu, 03 Jul 2014 09:34:00 GMT

    Morning all, ive been watching this for a while now and very interesting proposition with good everything really. So bought in today and think this is a good solid medium t long term prospect from my green portfolio.
    rgds
    binks By Binkley
  • Volume by wishful thinking
    Wed, 19 Feb 2014 17:30:00 GMT

    Big volume today - seems that after a clear out the often stock rises? By wishful thinking
  • GKO prospective Broker P/E.... by oldjoe1
    Mon, 09 Dec 2013 14:27:00 GMT

    Interesting to see broker Singer have a
    prospective P/E of only 11.4 to 2015 (176% EPS growth)
    and a PEG of .06

    NAV figure per share looks interesting aswel.

    Looks very cheap to me and plenty of potential.

    Greenko Group PLC

    FORECASTS

    Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
    N+1 Singer [R]
    06-12-13 BUY 10.15 4.39


    2015
    Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
    Consensus 34.31 12.94 0.00


    GROWTH
    2015 (E)
    Norm. EPS 176.82%
    DPS %

    INVESTMENT RATIOS
    2015 (E)
    EBITDA £73.44m
    EBIT £m
    Dividend Yield %
    Dividend Cover x
    PER 11.44x
    PEG 0.06f

    Net Asset Value 2014 132.43p p

    hemscott. By oldjoe1
  • GKO...... CHART BREAKOUT by oldjoe1
    Mon, 09 Dec 2013 11:48:00 GMT

    From a technical point of view for
    the chartists among us an interesting
    chart breakout.

    link By oldjoe1
  • Re: Daily Mail-Midas by oldjoe1
    Mon, 09 Dec 2013 08:54:00 GMT

    Buy shares in Greenko Group, the Mail on Sunday's Midas column recommended. The renewable energy company has a massive opportunity to supply power to India, where green energy is cheaper than coal and gas. The country has a big fuel shortage and has to import fuels. Greenko's wind farms and biomass plants can fill the gap. After some bumpy early days on AIM from 2007, sentiment on Greenko has strengthened and Singapore has invested £100m in the company. At 148p, the shares offer growth potential in the next year and beyond.

    By oldjoe1
  • Daily Mail-Midas by nk1999
    Sun, 08 Dec 2013 11:15:00 GMT

    Buy tip today at 148p.

    link

    I am still sceptical.
    nk By nk1999
  • Ahead of Schedule by wishful thinking
    Mon, 11 Nov 2013 08:06:00 GMT

    Great announcement today. A doubling of operating MW this year and on track for the 1,000 MW by 2015 promised some years ago. Surely this stock will soon get the attention of buyers and surpass its 2011 level of £2.25 per share? IMHO

    11 November 2013

    Greenko Group plc

    ("Greenko" or "the Company")



    Wind Farm Commissioned



    Greenko, the Indian developer, owner and operator of clean energy projects, is pleased to announce that Phase-1 (51.2 MW) of its Balavenkatpuram wind farm has been commissioned. This takes Greenko's total generating portfolio to 411 MW, a 38% increase since April 2013.



    Balavenkatpuram Phase-1 is the third wind farm Greenko has commissioned this year and the project was completed one month ahead of schedule. The project has secured a 25-year power purchase agreement with the state of Andhra Pradesh and benefits from the recently increased tariff, along with the Generation Based Incentive. The total Phase-1 cost was approximately €40 million and uses the enhanced GE 1.6 XLE turbine, which has the potential to deliver close to a 30% capacity factor in an average year.



    The grid connection for the site's full capacity of 200 MW has also been completed. Phase-2 (50.0 MW) using Gamesa's large G97 turbine, which has a 90m hub height and 97m diameter blades, is currently under construction and on schedule. The Group's strategy of building large scale wind farms in a phased manner, using the latest low wind speed turbine technology connected to the high voltage transmission grid, means it is able to deliver significant, predictable and profitable growth.



    As previously announced, Greenko's performance remains in line with expectations. The early monsoon helped southern hydro and wind power generation, while northern hydro is running well, with good plant availability.



    Commenting on the project, Anil Chalamalasetty, CEO of Greenko, said: "We are delighted to be commissioning Phase-1 ahead of schedule. Our first two wind farms refined our modular approach to wind farm construction, which is now delivering substantial and predictable growth. As a result, we should double our generating capacity this financial year to 600 MW and remain in line to hit our 2015 target of 1,000 MW."
    By wishful thinking
  • Re: Interest & Interest cover by wishful thinking
    Mon, 29 Jul 2013 13:34:00 GMT

    HI there

    Not sure you are taking into account the fact that this is a company still developing many of its assets and is therefore difficult to compare to mature utilities.

    I understand project finance in India for such Hydro and Wind assets is typically on a 70:30 debt equity or even higher at 80.20 so suspect GKO has lots of headroom. Sadly interest rates are still high in India.

    I would prefer debt to be raised to accelerate growth rather than dilute shareholders.

    I sure dividends will flow when the current projects are developed and generating cash, but why pay dividends when borrowings need to be so high?

    My only frustration with GKO is that the nature of their business means projects take ages to build!

    IMHO



    By wishful thinking
  • Interest & Interest cover by kingpin_z
    Mon, 29 Jul 2013 12:45:00 GMT

    Just passing by.

    I looked at this company a year ago but forgotten why I left it and did not invest.

    After having a glance at the latest and most recent results... I remembered why.

    A big concern for me here was not so much the level of debt (although at close to 42% of Equity is an issue in itself), but more so the amount of interest cover from the operating profit. With interest running at barely one and a half times EBIT... that is not comfortable at all and is trending in the wrong direction.

    It is for the above reason there are no dividends, the company preferring to finance debt than return money to shareholders (for now), whether this changes in future I guess remains to be seen... though dividends are an incentive to invest, if they're are no dividends... especially for a utility, there is little incentive and hence why the share price has been so stagnant for long periods of time.

    For the old saying goes; - "If you look after the income, the capital will take care of itself."

    The share price will change considerably once the BoD reduce the liability overhead and start rewarding investors via dividends, that too may make the institutionals become a consideration. By kingpin_z
  • Mop up by wishful thinking
    Fri, 31 May 2013 08:59:00 GMT

    Great to see yesterday's news that the big boys are backing this stock again. Hopefully any potentially spare stock has now been mopped up and the SP can move forward to reflect the value of the asset base. IMHO By wishful thinking
  • Another link to Global Warming article by Valuespotter
    Fri, 24 May 2013 20:15:00 GMT

    Sorry if the links in my last 2 posts were bad. I've tested this one and it works OK:

    link By Valuespotter
  • Global warming's terrifying new math by Valuespotter
    Fri, 24 May 2013 20:09:00 GMT

    Sorry - that link doesn't seem to work. Try this one:

    link By Valuespotter
  • GKO by the_shareminator
    Fri, 24 Oct 2014 13:49:54 GMT

    How are GKO to repay bonds due in 2019 with 8% annual coupon and other liabilities due? 2016 forecasts profits of $50m. What is the scope for growth of operations, revenue and margins? B
  • Nice set of results!! by JohnGould
    Fri, 24 Oct 2014 11:20:41 GMT

    Should see this tick up a few pips now I think
  • RE: Bargin by JohnGould
    Thu, 16 Oct 2014 11:05:24 GMT

    a great LT play especially at these levels.
  • Bargin by SchiffJnr
    Thu, 16 Oct 2014 10:06:40 GMT

    Looking very cheap. The market is spooked. The drop has nothing fundamental to do with the business in my opinion.
  • SP down by SchiffJnr
    Fri, 10 Oct 2014 08:38:43 GMT

    Market is not liking the EIG investment at all. I imagine its due to the reasons I mentioned yesterday. It seems illogical to refinance bank debt with this form of bond/investment. Its an expensive way of doing it which suggests the banks are too comfortable with GKO. Not great news.
  • SP fall by mono51
    Fri, 10 Oct 2014 08:12:00 GMT

    big fall today. Must still be to do with the EIG investment? Not received well? Oil prices falling as well which makes it a cheaper option???? Still think this is a good long term investment
  • Re SP Fall by SchiffJnr
    Thu, 09 Oct 2014 17:30:33 GMT

    I questioned why Greenko want to replace bank debt with what seems like expensive debt - 5% pa plus 6% at maturity. I'm not sure what standard chartered were charging them? But surely refinancing with a bank would have been cheaper? And ofcourse any conversion to equity means dilution. I'm guessing that's way the share price has gone down.
  • RE: SP fall by JohnGould
    Thu, 09 Oct 2014 16:18:29 GMT

    I don't get it. The RNS sounded good and with EIG negotiating an option to convert debt in th future @ 240/share this should have surely been received with confidence especially since they would have done considerable due diligence prior to the deal. Anyone with any suggestion?
  • SP fall by mono51
    Wed, 08 Oct 2014 16:07:12 GMT

    being heading south recently despite all the good news???
  • RE: Growth Share by SchiffJnr
    Fri, 03 Oct 2014 12:33:39 GMT

    I have a small amount of holdings in the company and I agree with what Vigneron is saying. This is a great business which is growing very well and operates in a market that is crying out for energy. The business is well funded and last bond placement went well. If Modi can get India to grow at a faster rate, and GKO can continue to develop more power output, I can see this being a good dividend player in the future.
  • Growth Share by vigneron
    Fri, 03 Oct 2014 10:56:27 GMT

    I am not invested here at the moment. I was a holder fro the early days but sold about a year ago to invest elsewhere. I will invest again when funds are available as I think it is a great growth share and a very well run company. They are funded to grow their capacity to something like 1500 mw, which should then generate a very tasty income. The directors have options at circa £2.5 from memory so they are confident. Singapore swf has a big stake in the company. This is going to be part of my sipp in the near future.
  • SP Drop by mono51
    Wed, 01 Oct 2014 07:26:22 GMT

    anyone know why it has fallen back?
  • new broker rating by JohnGould
    Wed, 24 Sep 2014 14:00:37 GMT

    Investec have increased their rating to 310/share up from 275. Seems like they know something :)
  • Shares Magazine by finbarr
    Fri, 05 Sep 2014 13:18:50 GMT

    Nice write-up in this week's Shares mag. Greenko is a big favourite of L&G apparently. Not surprising as the demand for power in India is enormous. OPG is tipped too.
  • Share price.. by SchiffJnr
    Wed, 27 Aug 2014 11:24:18 GMT

    ... is trending up nicely :-)