AIM Soiree Butler Greenko Group GKO.L

Greenko Group is trading below the moving 50 day average and below the moving 200 day average on below-average volume.
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165.875p
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  • expnasion at 170p by thirty fifty twenty
    Mon, 14 Jul 2014 12:27:00 GMT

    RNS seems to be good news and small price rise today after recent rises
    I guess they might be looking at securitising some of the revenue from current operating power plants as a cheaper source of finance than pure project debt finance or equity dilution when price is arguable low.

    Singapore Gvt Fund were able to convert from c. 130p to 237p (from memory)
    so you might say that realistic price was 2/3rd away along that curve (given it was 3 years out)
    and it had expensive debt in the meantime at 10% I think

    so great that they looking at various options
    it all means expansion and that people happy to invest in the mgt team


    All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
    GKO is in my top5 hldgs By thirty fifty twenty
  • joined the party by Binkley
    Thu, 03 Jul 2014 09:34:00 GMT

    Morning all, ive been watching this for a while now and very interesting proposition with good everything really. So bought in today and think this is a good solid medium t long term prospect from my green portfolio.
    rgds
    binks By Binkley
  • Volume by wishful thinking
    Wed, 19 Feb 2014 17:30:00 GMT

    Big volume today - seems that after a clear out the often stock rises? By wishful thinking
  • GKO prospective Broker P/E.... by oldjoe1
    Mon, 09 Dec 2013 14:27:00 GMT

    Interesting to see broker Singer have a
    prospective P/E of only 11.4 to 2015 (176% EPS growth)
    and a PEG of .06

    NAV figure per share looks interesting aswel.

    Looks very cheap to me and plenty of potential.

    Greenko Group PLC

    FORECASTS

    Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
    N+1 Singer [R]
    06-12-13 BUY 10.15 4.39


    2015
    Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
    Consensus 34.31 12.94 0.00


    GROWTH
    2015 (E)
    Norm. EPS 176.82%
    DPS %

    INVESTMENT RATIOS
    2015 (E)
    EBITDA £73.44m
    EBIT £m
    Dividend Yield %
    Dividend Cover x
    PER 11.44x
    PEG 0.06f

    Net Asset Value 2014 132.43p p

    hemscott. By oldjoe1
  • GKO...... CHART BREAKOUT by oldjoe1
    Mon, 09 Dec 2013 11:48:00 GMT

    From a technical point of view for
    the chartists among us an interesting
    chart breakout.

    link By oldjoe1
  • Re: Daily Mail-Midas by oldjoe1
    Mon, 09 Dec 2013 08:54:00 GMT

    Buy shares in Greenko Group, the Mail on Sunday's Midas column recommended. The renewable energy company has a massive opportunity to supply power to India, where green energy is cheaper than coal and gas. The country has a big fuel shortage and has to import fuels. Greenko's wind farms and biomass plants can fill the gap. After some bumpy early days on AIM from 2007, sentiment on Greenko has strengthened and Singapore has invested £100m in the company. At 148p, the shares offer growth potential in the next year and beyond.

    By oldjoe1
  • Daily Mail-Midas by nk1999
    Sun, 08 Dec 2013 11:15:00 GMT

    Buy tip today at 148p.

    link

    I am still sceptical.
    nk By nk1999
  • Ahead of Schedule by wishful thinking
    Mon, 11 Nov 2013 08:06:00 GMT

    Great announcement today. A doubling of operating MW this year and on track for the 1,000 MW by 2015 promised some years ago. Surely this stock will soon get the attention of buyers and surpass its 2011 level of £2.25 per share? IMHO

    11 November 2013

    Greenko Group plc

    ("Greenko" or "the Company")



    Wind Farm Commissioned



    Greenko, the Indian developer, owner and operator of clean energy projects, is pleased to announce that Phase-1 (51.2 MW) of its Balavenkatpuram wind farm has been commissioned. This takes Greenko's total generating portfolio to 411 MW, a 38% increase since April 2013.



    Balavenkatpuram Phase-1 is the third wind farm Greenko has commissioned this year and the project was completed one month ahead of schedule. The project has secured a 25-year power purchase agreement with the state of Andhra Pradesh and benefits from the recently increased tariff, along with the Generation Based Incentive. The total Phase-1 cost was approximately €40 million and uses the enhanced GE 1.6 XLE turbine, which has the potential to deliver close to a 30% capacity factor in an average year.



    The grid connection for the site's full capacity of 200 MW has also been completed. Phase-2 (50.0 MW) using Gamesa's large G97 turbine, which has a 90m hub height and 97m diameter blades, is currently under construction and on schedule. The Group's strategy of building large scale wind farms in a phased manner, using the latest low wind speed turbine technology connected to the high voltage transmission grid, means it is able to deliver significant, predictable and profitable growth.



    As previously announced, Greenko's performance remains in line with expectations. The early monsoon helped southern hydro and wind power generation, while northern hydro is running well, with good plant availability.



    Commenting on the project, Anil Chalamalasetty, CEO of Greenko, said: "We are delighted to be commissioning Phase-1 ahead of schedule. Our first two wind farms refined our modular approach to wind farm construction, which is now delivering substantial and predictable growth. As a result, we should double our generating capacity this financial year to 600 MW and remain in line to hit our 2015 target of 1,000 MW."
    By wishful thinking
  • Re: Interest & Interest cover by wishful thinking
    Mon, 29 Jul 2013 13:34:00 GMT

    HI there

    Not sure you are taking into account the fact that this is a company still developing many of its assets and is therefore difficult to compare to mature utilities.

    I understand project finance in India for such Hydro and Wind assets is typically on a 70:30 debt equity or even higher at 80.20 so suspect GKO has lots of headroom. Sadly interest rates are still high in India.

    I would prefer debt to be raised to accelerate growth rather than dilute shareholders.

    I sure dividends will flow when the current projects are developed and generating cash, but why pay dividends when borrowings need to be so high?

    My only frustration with GKO is that the nature of their business means projects take ages to build!

    IMHO



    By wishful thinking
  • Interest & Interest cover by kingpin_z
    Mon, 29 Jul 2013 12:45:00 GMT

    Just passing by.

    I looked at this company a year ago but forgotten why I left it and did not invest.

    After having a glance at the latest and most recent results... I remembered why.

    A big concern for me here was not so much the level of debt (although at close to 42% of Equity is an issue in itself), but more so the amount of interest cover from the operating profit. With interest running at barely one and a half times EBIT... that is not comfortable at all and is trending in the wrong direction.

    It is for the above reason there are no dividends, the company preferring to finance debt than return money to shareholders (for now), whether this changes in future I guess remains to be seen... though dividends are an incentive to invest, if they're are no dividends... especially for a utility, there is little incentive and hence why the share price has been so stagnant for long periods of time.

    For the old saying goes; - "If you look after the income, the capital will take care of itself."

    The share price will change considerably once the BoD reduce the liability overhead and start rewarding investors via dividends, that too may make the institutionals become a consideration. By kingpin_z
  • Mop up by wishful thinking
    Fri, 31 May 2013 08:59:00 GMT

    Great to see yesterday's news that the big boys are backing this stock again. Hopefully any potentially spare stock has now been mopped up and the SP can move forward to reflect the value of the asset base. IMHO By wishful thinking
  • Another link to Global Warming article by Valuespotter
    Fri, 24 May 2013 20:15:00 GMT

    Sorry if the links in my last 2 posts were bad. I've tested this one and it works OK:

    link By Valuespotter
  • Global warming's terrifying new math by Valuespotter
    Fri, 24 May 2013 20:09:00 GMT

    Sorry - that link doesn't seem to work. Try this one:

    link By Valuespotter
  • Global warming's terrifying new math by Valuespotter
    Fri, 24 May 2013 20:06:00 GMT

    Article from last year, remains just as relevant today. Since this was published Hurricane Sandy caused major flooding in NYC; more recently atmospheric CO2 has climbed over 400 ppm. The article makes a compelling argument for selling fossil fuel companies and investing in green energy. Companies such as Greenko and Wasabi Energy look well positioned to benefit from the end of the illogical "green discount" on their shares.

    link By Valuespotter
  • Re: Brilliant RNS x 2 by wishful thinking
    Fri, 15 Mar 2013 18:25:00 GMT

    Yes, agree with you - short term target surely has to be 200 to 300p with more over time. Not sure why the announcement came out on a Friday afternoon, but hopefully the press will still pick it up?

    The share price has been, IMHO so very undervalued/ignored for a long time but hopefully things will now be on the move. Sadly I only saw this announcement after the market closed but will be buying on Monday morning to hopefully have a very quick 100% return.

    I now understand why such high profile Board members were appointed recently.

    We done to the Indian management for driving things forward so well when so much else in the world is going backwards. By wishful thinking
  • Looks like some buying finally by JohnGould
    Fri, 01 Aug 2014 13:07:21 GMT

    nice to see, long may it continue
  • News by JohnGould
    Wed, 30 Jul 2014 10:07:27 GMT

    Hyderabad, July 28: Renewable energy company Greenko Group plc has raised $550 million by sale of bonds overseas. The bond offer of five-year tenure, carrying 8 per cent interest, was made by the company subsidiary Greenko Dutch BV, with the parent as the guarantor. The company, which is listed in the AIM of the London Stock Exchange and operates with its headquarters in Hyderabad, will list them on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Reacting to the successful offer of bonds, Anil Chalmalasetty, Chief Executive Officer of Greenko Group, told Business Line, “The company plans to ease up some of the debt burden of completed projects and deploy funds in ongoing projects through the funds raised from the bond offer. We are pleased with the development.” About 620 MW of completed projects are part of the transaction. The proceeds of the bond offer will be used primarily towards repaying the group’s existing debt, according to a statement made with the regulators. “We now have an installed capacity of over 700 MW of wind and hydel power generation assets now under operation and expect to cross one gigawatt (1000 MW) of capacity within the next few months. Several wind energy assets are at various stages of commissioning in India,” he said. (This article was published on July 28, 2014)
  • Tipped... by SchiffJnr
    Mon, 07 Jul 2014 14:54:50 GMT

    ...in the Telegraph this week. Admittedly, the Telegraph aren't the best of tipsters, but this company continues to get some good press coverage. I decided to top up alittle today. Let's hope the Modi bull market continues for a long time.
  • Rame Energy by edthorne
    Tue, 01 Jul 2014 08:32:31 GMT

    Anyone follow Rame Energy, looks like they are looking to do what Greenko is doing in india but in Chile:

    link

  • RE: Interesting ft article by JohnGould
    Tue, 24 Jun 2014 23:40:19 GMT

    Recent data show that wholesale price inflation topped 6 per cent a year in May, up from 5.2 per cent in April; consumer prices rose by an annualised 8.3 per cent, against a central bank target of 8 per cent. Indians, then, will be keeping an anxious eye on Iraq for more reasons than one. “Definitely we view this as something to watch more carefully if this emerges to be a trend,” says Shubhada Rao, chief economist at Yes Bank. “However, if we have some semblance of control over what’s happening in Iraq over the next few weeks, probably we could see some relief.”
  • Interesting ft article by JohnGould
    Tue, 24 Jun 2014 23:38:09 GMT

    Indian inflation feels the heat from Iraq Jun 16, 2014 5:07pm by Avantika Chilkoti 2 inShare 1 0 The violence in Iraq has put the nation’s oil exports at risk, prompting a rise in global oil prices. For India, which relies on imports for over 75 per cent of its oil and gas needs, that could spell trouble – especially as a new government takes over in New Delhi, eager to control India’s fiscal and current account deficits while maintaining popular support. In India’s heavily regulated market, local media have warned that the losses India’s oil marketing companies suffer for providing cheap diesel could double as global oil prices rise. “Because the fuel prices are regulated, if fuel prices goes up, the losses go up,” says Dayanand Mittal, an oil and gas expert at brokerage Ambit Capital. Industry analysts hope the current surge in oil prices will be temporary but the fear is that it may affect the government’s plans to slowly deregulate the market. Oil marketing companies have been allowed to up the selling price of diesel by 50 paise a litre each month. The ‘under-recoveries’ – the losses companies make by selling below cost – in the last fortnight were about Rs1.5 a litre, according to Prayesh Jain, an analyst at India Infoline, a local brokerage. Such losses are exacerbated by interest costs and their impact on capital expenditure. Source: Crisil As prices continue to rise, losses should have been eroded over the next few months, after which prices would be entirely freed. But that was before the sudden rise in global prices. It has come at a bad time for India, as the incoming government is poised to announce a new budget designed to rein in the fiscal and current account deficits. Expensive subsidies are part of the problem. Last October, an expert group found that the subsidies on petroleum products cost the government Rs969bn ($16bn) in the 2012-2013 year, which was 38 per cent of all government subsidies. India’s dependence on expensive imports is also weighing on the country’s external balances. Imports of crude oil during the 2012-13 year were valued at Rs7.85tn, up 16.7 per cent year-on-year, according to government data, as the rupee depreciated against the dollar. The rupee weakened 0.7 per cent to 60.2 to the dollar on Monday, crossing the 60 per dollar mark again. Rising fuel prices may also affect another of the government’s priority areas: inflation. “Because oil price flows through many other commodities, it impacts transportation costs so it would affect vegetables and other prices as well,” says Mittal. The central bank held interest rates steady this month. But it warned that a possible El Nino weather pattern distorting this year’s monsoon could lead to higher food prices. This isn’t a good time for fuel prices to rise too.
  • RE: Re: GKO by JohnGould
    Mon, 23 Jun 2014 20:29:35 GMT

    per IC article and valuation metrics. . . Over the next couple of years around 392MW of projects under construction will be completed which in turn should deliver substantial returns to shareholders. This explains why analyst Adam Forsyth at broking house Arden Partners is forecasting a further ramp up in revenues and profits for the financial year to March 2015. He predicts turnover will rise by an eye-catching 81 per cent to €96m which will drive up operating profit from €27.5m to €63m. On this basis, expect pre-tax profit of €35.2m and EPS of 13 cents, or 10.5p a share. This means that Greenko’s shares are trading on around 15 times forward earnings. The price to book value is 1.5 times. Analyst Harold Hutchinson at broking house Investec predicts pre-tax profits of €34m for the same period. It’s my view that these forecasts look pretty sound as there is clear visibility on how these revenues are going to be generated from a designated pipeline of new capacity across a number of wind and hydro projects in India. For the financial year to end March 2016, analysts are predicting a further ramp up in turnover to between €146m to €178m to deliver operating profits of above €100m and pre-tax profits of between €50m to €55m. On this basis, EPS could be as high as 18.5¢, or almost 15p, which means the prospective PE drops even further to little over 10. For a company set to quadruple EPS over the next two financial years, this doesn’t seem a high rating at all to pay for a slice of those earnings. It also explains why Investec have a target price of 275p on the shares.
  • Re: GKO by EJL7
    Mon, 23 Jun 2014 19:34:11 GMT

    Nice to see some great input on the board-many thanks. Was looking at reported EPS of Euro 4.5(approx. 3.59 GBP)-so vs. 168.5, that's a current p/e of about 47. Even let's assume eps grows again over 50%-that's still a prospective p/e of over 31. I agree with all of the other arguments about green power, government support, etc.-but it's still a high valuation. I also want to look at their currency exposure. As said in Chairman's statement-"Despite challenges across the sector and exchange rate volatility impacting the accounting treatment of our reported financial metrics, we are confident that the quality of the underlying assets should deliver substantial value to our shareholders." Borrowing in Euros/USD and selling product in rupees-is always going to be a problem. Also-in future-if they start paying a dividend-as stated in Final Results-" Reported profit after tax increased by 55% to €9.3 million (2013: €6.0 million). Of this, €2.5 million (2013: €1.66 million) was attributed to minority shareholders, mainly the preference share held by Global Environment Emerging Markets Fund III and Government of Singapore Investment Company (GIC) through their subsidiary have invested in the Group at the Mauritius subsidiary level, and GE which invested in Greenko's wind holding company." Nice to have the minority shareholders of that calibre, but they will get paid first.
  • FT mention by JohnGould
    Mon, 23 Jun 2014 16:32:06 GMT

    Good year puts wind in sails of renewables group Greenko Shares in Greenko, the Indian renewable power generator, appear to finally have the wind back in their sails after a year of improved revenues and profits, writes Michael Kavanagh. Further investment across a range of wind farm and hydroelectric assets at the Aim-quoted company drove revenues up from €38m to €53m and helped pre-tax profits jump from €8m to €13.5m in the year to March. Further spending to take its total generating capacity in the emerging economy to 1,000 megawatts in 2015 – and 2,000MW in 2018 – should drive more growth in turnover and earnings. Operational progress has coincided with an improvement in Greenko’s share price which, though below peaks close to 250p hit in 2011, is up 40 per cent over the year at 172p and above its 2007 float price of 98p.
  • In the papers... by JohnGould
    Mon, 23 Jun 2014 15:57:44 GMT

    Investors should buy shares of AIM-listed wind-power company Greenko, Questor recommended in the Sunday Telegraph. The India-focused operator’s revenue rose 38 per cent and pretax profit jumped 70 per cent in the year ended March 31st as power-producing capacity at its wind farms more than doubled. India has serious power shortage problems and Greenko (GKO) has commissioned new capacity.
  • Just bought in... by JohnGould
    Mon, 23 Jun 2014 15:43:48 GMT

    And considering all the unrest in Iraq in the possibility if that impacting energy prices I think now is the time to pile into renewable energy stocks though few have the growth potential of this one IMO.
  • RE: IC CONTINUED by Quick-Buck
    Sun, 22 Jun 2014 12:58:12 GMT

    Orbistim Remainder of Simon Thompson's article below... ..."That said, a growth company like Greenko should be able to achieve a multiple of between 9 to 11 times cash profits. So on the basis that Investec expect Greenko to generate cash profits of €143m in the financial year to March 2016, and after factoring in net debt of €551m, analysts at the broking house arrive at an equity value per share of between 295p and 453p. Clearly, if Greenko manages to deliver and hit analysts’ earnings estimates, then Investec’s 275p target price doesn’t seem unreasonable. Arden Partner’s have a fair value of 245p a share, or 50 per cent above the current share price. My own target price range is between 225p to 230p, or the equivalent of seven times cash profit estimates to Greenko’s enterprise value for the financial year to March 2016. So trading on a bid-offer spread of 161p to 162p, valuing the company’s equity at only £242m, and offering 44 per cent upside to my target price, I still maintain that Greenko’s shares are well worth buying into."
  • RE: IC CONTINUED by orbistim
    Sun, 22 Jun 2014 12:00:30 GMT

    Quick Buck. Thank you for the IC article. The rest of the text is cut off. Can you post it again please? Together with the Questor article in the Telegraph I would expect a solid climb in the share price on Monday.
  • IC CONTINUED by Quick-Buck
    Fri, 20 Jun 2014 20:45:41 GMT

    Robust revenue and earnings growth Over the next couple of years around 392MW of projects under construction will be completed which in turn should deliver substantial returns to shareholders. This explains why analyst Adam Forsyth at broking house Arden Partners is forecasting a further ramp up in revenues and profits for the financial year to March 2015. He predicts turnover will rise by an eye-catching 81 per cent to €96m which will drive up operating profit from €27.5m to €63m. On this basis, expect pre-tax profit of €35.2m and EPS of 13 cents, or 10.5p a share. This means that Greenko’s shares are trading on around 15 times forward earnings. The price to book value is 1.5 times. Analyst Harold Hutchinson at broking house Investec predicts pre-tax profits of €34m for the same period. It’s my view that these forecasts look pretty sound as there is clear visibility on how these revenues are going to be generated from a designated pipeline of new capacity across a number of wind and hydro projects in India. For the financial year to end March 2016, analysts are predicting a further ramp up in turnover to between €146m to €178m to deliver operating profits of above €100m and pre-tax profits of between €50m to €55m. On this basis, EPS could be as high as 18.5¢, or almost 15p, which means the prospective PE drops even further to little over 10. For a company set to quadruple EPS over the next two financial years, this doesn’t seem a high rating at all to pay for a slice of those earnings. It also explains why Investec have a target price of 275p on the shares. Target price To arrive at this figure Mr Hutchinson of Investec notes that given the over-riding ‘net short’ position in the Indian power market, in practical terms “we would expect Greenko assets to trade at a premium to new build costs, reflecting the value of having assets actually in the ground to benefit from the excess demand for power. The question boils down to estimates of new build costs, and a reasonable ‘premium’.” Investec use an estimate of €0.8m/MW for new build of wind and €1.1m for hydro in India. Their capacity multiples approach suggest a fair value for Greenko’s shares of between 251p to 417p. Investec also look at the cash profitability of the business in relation to the company’s enterprise value (market value plus net debt). The benefit of this particular analytical approach is that it captures some of the ‘growth value’ of a company, rather than just the value of the assets in the ground. True, the ‘fair’ cash profit multiple valuation for a company is dependent on a number of factors including: underlying cash flow, the age of assets, the underlying tax rate, weighted cost of capital employed, and longer-term growth. That said, a growth company like Greenko should be able to ach
  • INVESTORS CHRONICLE -SIMON THOMPSON by Quick-Buck
    Fri, 20 Jun 2014 20:41:06 GMT

    Greenko (GKO: 162p), the Indian developer, owner and operator of clean energy projects, has reported the bumper set of results investors had been anticipating. Despite the headwinds of a weak Indian rupee which depreciated by 19 per cent against the euro in the 12 month reporting period, the company still managed to grow revenues by 38 per cent to €53m (£42m) and increase operating profit by almost 40 per cent to €27.5m in the financial year to end March 2014. On a constant currency basis, revenue actually rose almost 60 per cent. After deducting net finance costs of €14m, pre-tax profits shot up two thirds to €13.5m year-on-year to lift adjusted EPS up by over a half to 4.5 cents. And with 252MW of new capacity added in the period, and a further 100MW post the period end, then capacity has more than doubled to 661MW since April last year, of which wind power accounts for 348MW. This means that the company is on target to hit 700MW of total operating capacity ahead of this year’s wind and monsoon season. The wind season starts next month. The pipeline is equally robust: around 423 MW of projects are under construction and 1,240 MW are in active development as Greenko delivers on its strategy of creating a diversified hydropower and wind portfolio for India's high demand power market, supported by a reliable roll-out of high yield assets. The target is to achieve 1,000MW of operating capacity by next year, and to double capacity to 2,000MW by 2018. The political back drop is also encouraging as clean energy is becoming an increasingly important part of the Indian energy market and will provide a significant portion of the Indian Government's 12th Plan target for new capacity. The Indian energy market is now witnessing a paradigm shift, with the emphasis changing to price discovery using reliable supply contracts, instead of unsustainable subsidised power. Given the major shortages in domestic coal and gas supplies in the country, the market environment now reflects global commodity pricing in the financial return expectations for energy companies. This effect is most prominent in the bidding process across multiple states with tariffs well above rupees 5/kWh (Euro 80/MWh). Furthermore, following the newly elected Prime Minister's statement to strive to deliver “24/7 power availability in the country”, renewable energy is now viewed as a key priority. This can only be good news for Greenko with its high quality portfolio of hydro and wind capacity. It’s important too that all of Greenko's renewable projects can achieve grid parity, the point at which they do not rely on state subsidies to turn a profit. In fact, due to the relatively high cost of coal in India, the cost of wind and hydro generation projects is below that of coal fired projects. In turn, this places the company in a far better position than other developers of renewable projects in other parts of the globe.