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  • analysis of trading update at 135p by thirty fifty twenty
    Fri, 24 Oct 2014 12:59:00 GMT

    wow - I think this reads great!!

    sales up 120%, ebitda up 130%, debts cost down so eps up even more??
    an even balance between wind and hydro
    projects on time, on budget etc....
    infrastrure built so additional is incremental costs and time - great news!
    mgt team delivering on previous promises
    economic backdrop favourable
    very confident of future....

    of course there are risks ... india, currency, cracks in dam?, no wind, no monsoon
    (actually that's quite a lot LOL!!)
    but seems to me to be a growth company in a growth sector in a growth economy!! 3G!!!

    I think the best thing re the trading update is that profits on track for expectations
    EVEN THOUGH monsoon started late!!
    so this means that the rest is ahead of expectations
    which gives some upside to H2...
    its great if they have - a little reserve in the tank!!

    also there is the benefit of scale with ebitda increasing faster than sales
    this may not continue indefinately given that the ebitda is already a huge %
    and with growth rates > 100% its superb if ebitda grwoth even matches sales growth

    additionally the debt refinancing means that eps growth will be facilitated
    its great risk/reward for equity shareholders to be highly geared in a growth stock
    especially as the debt is refinanced at a much cheaper rate
    and you'd imagine debt costs will only get cheaper for them as they become a €1bn established business

    I think this could move quickly now as eps of 12p for a 3G (growth growth growth) stock
    how many companies are there with 100% eps growth, and doubling again in following 2 years and growth after that sitting on a p/e of 11-12 times

    i was keen when the price was > 170p
    as its been a little bit of a shock to see the price as low as 130p
    the trading update give confidence that this was part of the market shake out
    (maybe AIM index funds selling ?) (maybe similar to the 140p fall out earlier in the summer)

    I'm happier to buy now at 140p than Monday at 136p!

    All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
    GKO is in my top 5 holdings
    By thirty fifty twenty
  • debt financing done at 170p by thirty fifty twenty
    Mon, 04 Aug 2014 07:45:00 GMT

    this is great news that they got such a level of interest and commitment for very substantial funds US dollar based.... the tone of the statement is very positive too.
    market sentiment seems very positive towards india given rises in indian related stocks
    and GKO do have one off opportunity to grab share of the energy market and its now evident that investors are prepared to back them...

    the upside is (almost) limitless
    if GKO get backing they find sites, build assets, make money
    and india's needs are sooo far short of current capacity that I say 'limitless'
    certainly in terms of corporate growth this to me now becomes possible of 10 years at over 20% eps growth p.a.

    All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
    GKO is in my top5 hldgs By thirty fifty twenty
  • expnasion at 170p by thirty fifty twenty
    Mon, 14 Jul 2014 12:27:00 GMT

    RNS seems to be good news and small price rise today after recent rises
    I guess they might be looking at securitising some of the revenue from current operating power plants as a cheaper source of finance than pure project debt finance or equity dilution when price is arguable low.

    Singapore Gvt Fund were able to convert from c. 130p to 237p (from memory)
    so you might say that realistic price was 2/3rd away along that curve (given it was 3 years out)
    and it had expensive debt in the meantime at 10% I think

    so great that they looking at various options
    it all means expansion and that people happy to invest in the mgt team

    All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
    GKO is in my top5 hldgs By thirty fifty twenty
  • joined the party by Binkley
    Thu, 03 Jul 2014 09:34:00 GMT

    Morning all, ive been watching this for a while now and very interesting proposition with good everything really. So bought in today and think this is a good solid medium t long term prospect from my green portfolio.
    binks By Binkley
  • Volume by wishful thinking
    Wed, 19 Feb 2014 17:30:00 GMT

    Big volume today - seems that after a clear out the often stock rises? By wishful thinking
  • GKO prospective Broker P/E.... by oldjoe1
    Mon, 09 Dec 2013 14:27:00 GMT

    Interesting to see broker Singer have a
    prospective P/E of only 11.4 to 2015 (176% EPS growth)
    and a PEG of .06

    NAV figure per share looks interesting aswel.

    Looks very cheap to me and plenty of potential.

    Greenko Group PLC


    Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
    N+1 Singer [R]
    06-12-13 BUY 10.15 4.39

    Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
    Consensus 34.31 12.94 0.00

    2015 (E)
    Norm. EPS 176.82%
    DPS %

    2015 (E)
    EBITDA £73.44m
    EBIT £m
    Dividend Yield %
    Dividend Cover x
    PER 11.44x
    PEG 0.06f

    Net Asset Value 2014 132.43p p

    hemscott. By oldjoe1
  • GKO...... CHART BREAKOUT by oldjoe1
    Mon, 09 Dec 2013 11:48:00 GMT

    From a technical point of view for
    the chartists among us an interesting
    chart breakout.

    link By oldjoe1
  • Re: Daily Mail-Midas by oldjoe1
    Mon, 09 Dec 2013 08:54:00 GMT

    Buy shares in Greenko Group, the Mail on Sunday's Midas column recommended. The renewable energy company has a massive opportunity to supply power to India, where green energy is cheaper than coal and gas. The country has a big fuel shortage and has to import fuels. Greenko's wind farms and biomass plants can fill the gap. After some bumpy early days on AIM from 2007, sentiment on Greenko has strengthened and Singapore has invested £100m in the company. At 148p, the shares offer growth potential in the next year and beyond.

    By oldjoe1
  • Daily Mail-Midas by nk1999
    Sun, 08 Dec 2013 11:15:00 GMT

    Buy tip today at 148p.


    I am still sceptical.
    nk By nk1999
  • Ahead of Schedule by wishful thinking
    Mon, 11 Nov 2013 08:06:00 GMT

    Great announcement today. A doubling of operating MW this year and on track for the 1,000 MW by 2015 promised some years ago. Surely this stock will soon get the attention of buyers and surpass its 2011 level of £2.25 per share? IMHO

    11 November 2013

    Greenko Group plc

    ("Greenko" or "the Company")

    Wind Farm Commissioned

    Greenko, the Indian developer, owner and operator of clean energy projects, is pleased to announce that Phase-1 (51.2 MW) of its Balavenkatpuram wind farm has been commissioned. This takes Greenko's total generating portfolio to 411 MW, a 38% increase since April 2013.

    Balavenkatpuram Phase-1 is the third wind farm Greenko has commissioned this year and the project was completed one month ahead of schedule. The project has secured a 25-year power purchase agreement with the state of Andhra Pradesh and benefits from the recently increased tariff, along with the Generation Based Incentive. The total Phase-1 cost was approximately €40 million and uses the enhanced GE 1.6 XLE turbine, which has the potential to deliver close to a 30% capacity factor in an average year.

    The grid connection for the site's full capacity of 200 MW has also been completed. Phase-2 (50.0 MW) using Gamesa's large G97 turbine, which has a 90m hub height and 97m diameter blades, is currently under construction and on schedule. The Group's strategy of building large scale wind farms in a phased manner, using the latest low wind speed turbine technology connected to the high voltage transmission grid, means it is able to deliver significant, predictable and profitable growth.

    As previously announced, Greenko's performance remains in line with expectations. The early monsoon helped southern hydro and wind power generation, while northern hydro is running well, with good plant availability.

    Commenting on the project, Anil Chalamalasetty, CEO of Greenko, said: "We are delighted to be commissioning Phase-1 ahead of schedule. Our first two wind farms refined our modular approach to wind farm construction, which is now delivering substantial and predictable growth. As a result, we should double our generating capacity this financial year to 600 MW and remain in line to hit our 2015 target of 1,000 MW."
    By wishful thinking
  • Re: Interest & Interest cover by wishful thinking
    Mon, 29 Jul 2013 13:34:00 GMT

    HI there

    Not sure you are taking into account the fact that this is a company still developing many of its assets and is therefore difficult to compare to mature utilities.

    I understand project finance in India for such Hydro and Wind assets is typically on a 70:30 debt equity or even higher at 80.20 so suspect GKO has lots of headroom. Sadly interest rates are still high in India.

    I would prefer debt to be raised to accelerate growth rather than dilute shareholders.

    I sure dividends will flow when the current projects are developed and generating cash, but why pay dividends when borrowings need to be so high?

    My only frustration with GKO is that the nature of their business means projects take ages to build!


    By wishful thinking
  • Interest & Interest cover by kingpin_z
    Mon, 29 Jul 2013 12:45:00 GMT

    Just passing by.

    I looked at this company a year ago but forgotten why I left it and did not invest.

    After having a glance at the latest and most recent results... I remembered why.

    A big concern for me here was not so much the level of debt (although at close to 42% of Equity is an issue in itself), but more so the amount of interest cover from the operating profit. With interest running at barely one and a half times EBIT... that is not comfortable at all and is trending in the wrong direction.

    It is for the above reason there are no dividends, the company preferring to finance debt than return money to shareholders (for now), whether this changes in future I guess remains to be seen... though dividends are an incentive to invest, if they're are no dividends... especially for a utility, there is little incentive and hence why the share price has been so stagnant for long periods of time.

    For the old saying goes; - "If you look after the income, the capital will take care of itself."

    The share price will change considerably once the BoD reduce the liability overhead and start rewarding investors via dividends, that too may make the institutionals become a consideration. By kingpin_z
  • Mop up by wishful thinking
    Fri, 31 May 2013 08:59:00 GMT

    Great to see yesterday's news that the big boys are backing this stock again. Hopefully any potentially spare stock has now been mopped up and the SP can move forward to reflect the value of the asset base. IMHO By wishful thinking
  • Another link to Global Warming article by Valuespotter
    Fri, 24 May 2013 20:15:00 GMT

    Sorry if the links in my last 2 posts were bad. I've tested this one and it works OK:

    link By Valuespotter
  • Global warming's terrifying new math by Valuespotter
    Fri, 24 May 2013 20:09:00 GMT

    Sorry - that link doesn't seem to work. Try this one:

    link By Valuespotter
  • Results by mono51
    Thu, 04 Dec 2014 09:47:29 GMT

    All looks very good at half year and the promise of a divi soon. Looks cheap to me
  • SP falling by mono51
    Tue, 02 Dec 2014 15:47:27 GMT

    whats going on?
  • III article on greenko by Steeltrader
    Fri, 21 Nov 2014 23:06:06 GMT

    Greenko (GKO) builds and runs clean energy projects in India, and it’s clearly big business. In a recent first-half update, the company increased power generation by 89% to 1,225 gigawatts (GWh), which, it said, should grow first-half revenue by over 120% cash profit by about 130%. "As the Indian energy market becomes increasingly favourable towards hydro and wind power, we remain very optimistic about the sustainability of our solid operational and financial performance," said boss Anil Chalamalasetty. Installed capacity increased by 136 megawatts (MW) to 697 MW, and Greenko says it’s still on track for its operational portfolio to exceed 1,000 MW in 2015. That’s why house broker Arden Partners has pencilled in adjusted EPS growth of 217% for the year to March 2015. The company has also refinanced its Standard Chartered debt on better terms following a $125 million investment from EIG Global Energy Partners. Says Arden:
  • SP by finbarr
    Thu, 20 Nov 2014 09:49:18 GMT

    Ticking up nicely. Very good long-term prospects both in India and elsewhere.
  • RE: oil price decline by lummox
    Wed, 19 Nov 2014 09:51:34 GMT

    Massive cuts in the price of Coal would effect GKO alot more. Thats not going to happen in India as there is almost a ' fixed ' price for getting it to India or out the ground. I genuinely think this is a very positive share on a two to three year view. Results in early december could easily give the share price a 20 to 30p boost from the present 145 - 148 p range ! Well capitalised, Outstripping supply predictions, Building projects on target, favourable government support, and a guarantee that all GKO can produce will be bought. With India experiencing its own ' Industrial ' revolution these shares will go north IF EVERYTHING STAYS ON TRACK.
  • RE: oil price decline by SchiffJnr
    Tue, 11 Nov 2014 10:34:32 GMT

    I don't think cheaper oil will make much of a difference. Energy shortage in India is MASSIVE. Petrol is subsidised in India anwyay, so cheaper oil doesn't effect what people pay.
  • oil price decline by mono51
    Sat, 08 Nov 2014 10:56:33 GMT

    Does this make GKO less attractive as oil becomes a cheaper alternative than when it was at $100+?
  • SP by SchiffJnr
    Sun, 02 Nov 2014 14:58:35 GMT

    I agree, anyone buying at 132p is sitting very nicely as this is a great growth share. Management are incentivised to get the sp to 250p which looks realistic. But, 200p by Christmas will NOT happen. Short term the sp may struggle again. I can see another sell off occuring as american QE comes to an end. Like many aim shares, and many shares with emerging market exposure, the road is a bumpy one, but worth staying on in my opinion. Gla.
  • RE: SP by JohnGould
    Wed, 29 Oct 2014 14:14:25 GMT

    My pleasure. It was a reassuring read indeed after the recent drop which I think may be attributed to the financing deal which ironically was beneficial to GKO and their Sh's. GKO is highly diversified and so the rewards far outweigh the risks. I share your confidence, congratulations on getting in at 132 !
  • SP by Steeltrader
    Wed, 29 Oct 2014 13:57:37 GMT

    Thanks for posting that John, I was overjoyed to buy in at bargain 132 price last week, still is a bargain! Give it 2/3 years this will be 300+
  • I think this is fill by JohnGould
    Wed, 29 Oct 2014 13:15:59 GMT

    . . . your boots time people, come Christmas this could be over 200p IMO
  • RE: GKO by JohnGould
    Wed, 29 Oct 2014 13:10:00 GMT

    EIG has the option of converting the PIK coupon into Greenko shares at 240p each, or 69 per cent above the current share price.
  • Strong buy by JohnGould
    Wed, 29 Oct 2014 13:05:19 GMT

    Given by Simon Thompson . . . his analysis speaks for itself
  • RE: IC Article by JohnGould
    Wed, 29 Oct 2014 12:53:18 GMT

    Thirdly, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) momentum oscillator appears to be bottoming out. Although still below its signal line, there could be a potential cross over in the offing. And finally, having traded in a tight price range between 130p and 140p since this month's sharp sell-off ended, the point and figure chart (2 point) will signal a triple top break-out on a close of 142p or above. In my view with the technical set-up favourable, and the fundamental case unchanged since I last updated my view in the summer ('Bond investors warm to Greenko, 5 August 2014), a move in the price above the 140p level is worth following. Trading on a bid-offer spread of 136p to 139p, and on less than half Invesco and Arden Partners target prices of 310p and 300p, respectively, I rate Greenko shares a strong buy and have a conservative target price of between 225p and 230p. Buy.
  • RE: IC Article by JohnGould
    Wed, 29 Oct 2014 12:52:12 GMT

    Greenko is also powering up its wind farms and added 136MW of installed capacity in the latest six month trading period. The company has three new projects at advanced stages of construction and these have a total capacity of 338MW. In other words, there is clear visibility in the construction pipeline for investors to be confident that Greenko's 1,000 MW total capacity target will be hit next year. Importantly, the energy back drop is favourable for renewable energy in India as conventional power assets struggle to supply power to the grid due to fuel supply and off-take price issues. It’s worth flagging up that Greenko has a cost advantage and is supplying power below the price of conventional generation in many states of India. So with the roll-out on track, expect another step change in the company’s earnings in the financial year to March 2016. Based on estimates in the market, analysts are predicting Greenko’s turnover will surge to between €146m and €189m in that 12-month period. If achieved this will to lift operating profits to between €100m and $118m. Taking a conservative approach and using the lowest estimates, this still means that we can expect pre-tax profits of around €58m and EPS 21.6¢, or 17p. On this basis, the shares are currently being priced on 8 times earnings estimates for fiscal 2016, a very modest valuation for a company growing so quickly and one that is fully funded. Technical set up The strong fundamentals aside, there are sound technical reasons to believe that Greenko shares are overdue a recovery, and one that the forthcoming interim results are likely to prompt. For starters, Greenko's daily candlestick chart is informative as buyers moved in and pushed the price up from the intraday lows around 130p on both Thursday, 16 October and Thursday, 23 October. This created long tails on the chart, highlighting that a bottom could be in place. Secondly, the 14-day relative strength indicator (RSI) is heavily oversold and currently has a reading of 30. It will not take that much good news flow to spark a sharp rally from such oversold conditions.