Greenko Group GKO.L
Greenko Group is trading below the moving 50 day average and below the moving 200 day average on above-average volume.
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428 of 900
Overall AIM Rating
8 of 9
24 Oct 2014
24 Oct 2014
9 Oct 2014
29 Sep 2014
29 Sep 2014
25 Sep 2014
19 Sep 2014
13 Aug 2014
4 Aug 2014
analysis of trading update at 135p by thirty fifty twenty
Fri, 24 Oct 2014 12:59:00 GMT
wow - I think this reads great!!
sales up 120%, ebitda up 130%, debts cost down so eps up even more??
an even balance between wind and hydro
projects on time, on budget etc....
infrastrure built so additional is incremental costs and time - great news!
mgt team delivering on previous promises
economic backdrop favourable
very confident of future....
of course there are risks ... india, currency, cracks in dam?, no wind, no monsoon
(actually that's quite a lot LOL!!)
but seems to me to be a growth company in a growth sector in a growth economy!! 3G!!!
I think the best thing re the trading update is that profits on track for expectations
EVEN THOUGH monsoon started late!!
so this means that the rest is ahead of expectations
which gives some upside to H2...
its great if they have - a little reserve in the tank!!
also there is the benefit of scale with ebitda increasing faster than sales
this may not continue indefinately given that the ebitda is already a huge %
and with growth rates > 100% its superb if ebitda grwoth even matches sales growth
additionally the debt refinancing means that eps growth will be facilitated
its great risk/reward for equity shareholders to be highly geared in a growth stock
especially as the debt is refinanced at a much cheaper rate
and you'd imagine debt costs will only get cheaper for them as they become a 1bn established business
I think this could move quickly now as eps of 12p for a 3G (growth growth growth) stock
how many companies are there with 100% eps growth, and doubling again in following 2 years and growth after that sitting on a p/e of 11-12 times
i was keen when the price was > 170p
as its been a little bit of a shock to see the price as low as 130p
the trading update give confidence that this was part of the market shake out
(maybe AIM index funds selling ?) (maybe similar to the 140p fall out earlier in the summer)
I'm happier to buy now at 140p than Monday at 136p!
All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
GKO is in my top 5 holdings
By thirty fifty twenty
debt financing done at 170p by thirty fifty twenty
Mon, 04 Aug 2014 07:45:00 GMT
this is great news that they got such a level of interest and commitment for very substantial funds US dollar based.... the tone of the statement is very positive too.
market sentiment seems very positive towards india given rises in indian related stocks
and GKO do have one off opportunity to grab share of the energy market and its now evident that investors are prepared to back them...
the upside is (almost) limitless
if GKO get backing they find sites, build assets, make money
and india's needs are sooo far short of current capacity that I say 'limitless'
certainly in terms of corporate growth this to me now becomes possible of 10 years at over 20% eps growth p.a.
All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
GKO is in my top5 hldgs By thirty fifty twenty
expnasion at 170p by thirty fifty twenty
Mon, 14 Jul 2014 12:27:00 GMT
RNS seems to be good news and small price rise today after recent rises
I guess they might be looking at securitising some of the revenue from current operating power plants as a cheaper source of finance than pure project debt finance or equity dilution when price is arguable low.
Singapore Gvt Fund were able to convert from c. 130p to 237p (from memory)
so you might say that realistic price was 2/3rd away along that curve (given it was 3 years out)
and it had expensive debt in the meantime at 10% I think
so great that they looking at various options
it all means expansion and that people happy to invest in the mgt team
All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
GKO is in my top5 hldgs By thirty fifty twenty
joined the party by Binkley
Thu, 03 Jul 2014 09:34:00 GMT
Morning all, ive been watching this for a while now and very interesting proposition with good everything really. So bought in today and think this is a good solid medium t long term prospect from my green portfolio.
binks By Binkley
Volume by wishful thinking
Wed, 19 Feb 2014 17:30:00 GMT
Big volume today - seems that after a clear out the often stock rises? By wishful thinking
GKO prospective Broker P/E.... by oldjoe1
Mon, 09 Dec 2013 14:27:00 GMT
Interesting to see broker Singer have a
prospective P/E of only 11.4 to 2015 (176% EPS growth)
and a PEG of .06
NAV figure per share looks interesting aswel.
Looks very cheap to me and plenty of potential.
Greenko Group PLC
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
N+1 Singer [R]
06-12-13 BUY 10.15 4.39
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Consensus 34.31 12.94 0.00
Norm. EPS 176.82%
Dividend Yield %
Dividend Cover x
Net Asset Value 2014 132.43p p
hemscott. By oldjoe1
GKO...... CHART BREAKOUT by oldjoe1
Mon, 09 Dec 2013 11:48:00 GMT
From a technical point of view for
the chartists among us an interesting
Re: Daily Mail-Midas by oldjoe1
Mon, 09 Dec 2013 08:54:00 GMT
Buy shares in Greenko Group, the Mail on Sunday's Midas column recommended. The renewable energy company has a massive opportunity to supply power to India, where green energy is cheaper than coal and gas. The country has a big fuel shortage and has to import fuels. Greenko's wind farms and biomass plants can fill the gap. After some bumpy early days on AIM from 2007, sentiment on Greenko has strengthened and Singapore has invested £100m in the company. At 148p, the shares offer growth potential in the next year and beyond.
Daily Mail-Midas by nk1999
Sun, 08 Dec 2013 11:15:00 GMT
Buy tip today at 148p.
I am still sceptical.
nk By nk1999
Ahead of Schedule by wishful thinking
Mon, 11 Nov 2013 08:06:00 GMT
Great announcement today. A doubling of operating MW this year and on track for the 1,000 MW by 2015 promised some years ago. Surely this stock will soon get the attention of buyers and surpass its 2011 level of £2.25 per share? IMHO
11 November 2013
Greenko Group plc
("Greenko" or "the Company")
Wind Farm Commissioned
Greenko, the Indian developer, owner and operator of clean energy projects, is pleased to announce that Phase-1 (51.2 MW) of its Balavenkatpuram wind farm has been commissioned. This takes Greenko's total generating portfolio to 411 MW, a 38% increase since April 2013.
Balavenkatpuram Phase-1 is the third wind farm Greenko has commissioned this year and the project was completed one month ahead of schedule. The project has secured a 25-year power purchase agreement with the state of Andhra Pradesh and benefits from the recently increased tariff, along with the Generation Based Incentive. The total Phase-1 cost was approximately 40 million and uses the enhanced GE 1.6 XLE turbine, which has the potential to deliver close to a 30% capacity factor in an average year.
The grid connection for the site's full capacity of 200 MW has also been completed. Phase-2 (50.0 MW) using Gamesa's large G97 turbine, which has a 90m hub height and 97m diameter blades, is currently under construction and on schedule. The Group's strategy of building large scale wind farms in a phased manner, using the latest low wind speed turbine technology connected to the high voltage transmission grid, means it is able to deliver significant, predictable and profitable growth.
As previously announced, Greenko's performance remains in line with expectations. The early monsoon helped southern hydro and wind power generation, while northern hydro is running well, with good plant availability.
Commenting on the project, Anil Chalamalasetty, CEO of Greenko, said: "We are delighted to be commissioning Phase-1 ahead of schedule. Our first two wind farms refined our modular approach to wind farm construction, which is now delivering substantial and predictable growth. As a result, we should double our generating capacity this financial year to 600 MW and remain in line to hit our 2015 target of 1,000 MW."
By wishful thinking
Re: Interest & Interest cover by wishful thinking
Mon, 29 Jul 2013 13:34:00 GMT
Not sure you are taking into account the fact that this is a company still developing many of its assets and is therefore difficult to compare to mature utilities.
I understand project finance in India for such Hydro and Wind assets is typically on a 70:30 debt equity or even higher at 80.20 so suspect GKO has lots of headroom. Sadly interest rates are still high in India.
I would prefer debt to be raised to accelerate growth rather than dilute shareholders.
I sure dividends will flow when the current projects are developed and generating cash, but why pay dividends when borrowings need to be so high?
My only frustration with GKO is that the nature of their business means projects take ages to build!
By wishful thinking
Interest & Interest cover by kingpin_z
Mon, 29 Jul 2013 12:45:00 GMT
Just passing by.
I looked at this company a year ago but forgotten why I left it and did not invest.
After having a glance at the latest and most recent results... I remembered why.
A big concern for me here was not so much the level of debt (although at close to 42% of Equity is an issue in itself), but more so the amount of interest cover from the operating profit. With interest running at barely one and a half times EBIT... that is not comfortable at all and is trending in the wrong direction.
It is for the above reason there are no dividends, the company preferring to finance debt than return money to shareholders (for now), whether this changes in future I guess remains to be seen... though dividends are an incentive to invest, if they're are no dividends... especially for a utility, there is little incentive and hence why the share price has been so stagnant for long periods of time.
For the old saying goes; - "If you look after the income, the capital will take care of itself."
The share price will change considerably once the BoD reduce the liability overhead and start rewarding investors via dividends, that too may make the institutionals become a consideration. By kingpin_z
Mop up by wishful thinking
Fri, 31 May 2013 08:59:00 GMT
Great to see yesterday's news that the big boys are backing this stock again. Hopefully any potentially spare stock has now been mopped up and the SP can move forward to reflect the value of the asset base. IMHO By wishful thinking
Another link to Global Warming article by Valuespotter
Fri, 24 May 2013 20:15:00 GMT
Sorry if the links in my last 2 posts were bad. I've tested this one and it works OK:
Global warming's terrifying new math by Valuespotter
Fri, 24 May 2013 20:09:00 GMT
Sorry - that link doesn't seem to work. Try this one:
RE: SP by JohnGould
Wed, 29 Oct 2014 14:14:25 GMT
My pleasure. It was a reassuring read indeed after the recent drop which I think may be attributed to the financing deal which ironically was beneficial to GKO and their Sh's. GKO is highly diversified and so the rewards far outweigh the risks. I share your confidence, congratulations on getting in at 132 !
SP by Steeltrader
Wed, 29 Oct 2014 13:57:37 GMT
Thanks for posting that John, I was overjoyed to buy in at bargain 132 price last week, still is a bargain! Give it 2/3 years this will be 300+
I think this is fill by JohnGould
Wed, 29 Oct 2014 13:15:59 GMT
. . . your boots time people, come Christmas this could be over 200p IMO
RE: GKO by JohnGould
Wed, 29 Oct 2014 13:10:00 GMT
EIG has the option of converting the PIK coupon into Greenko shares at 240p each, or 69 per cent above the current share price.
Strong buy by JohnGould
Wed, 29 Oct 2014 13:05:19 GMT
Given by Simon Thompson . . . his analysis speaks for itself
RE: IC Article by JohnGould
Wed, 29 Oct 2014 12:53:18 GMT
Thirdly, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) momentum oscillator appears to be bottoming out. Although still below its signal line, there could be a potential cross over in the offing. And finally, having traded in a tight price range between 130p and 140p since this month's sharp sell-off ended, the point and figure chart (2 point) will signal a triple top break-out on a close of 142p or above. In my view with the technical set-up favourable, and the fundamental case unchanged since I last updated my view in the summer ('Bond investors warm to Greenko, 5 August 2014), a move in the price above the 140p level is worth following. Trading on a bid-offer spread of 136p to 139p, and on less than half Invesco and Arden Partners target prices of 310p and 300p, respectively, I rate Greenko shares a strong buy and have a conservative target price of between 225p and 230p. Buy.
RE: IC Article by JohnGould
Wed, 29 Oct 2014 12:52:12 GMT
Greenko is also powering up its wind farms and added 136MW of installed capacity in the latest six month trading period. The company has three new projects at advanced stages of construction and these have a total capacity of 338MW. In other words, there is clear visibility in the construction pipeline for investors to be confident that Greenko's 1,000 MW total capacity target will be hit next year. Importantly, the energy back drop is favourable for renewable energy in India as conventional power assets struggle to supply power to the grid due to fuel supply and off-take price issues. It’s worth flagging up that Greenko has a cost advantage and is supplying power below the price of conventional generation in many states of India. So with the roll-out on track, expect another step change in the company’s earnings in the financial year to March 2016. Based on estimates in the market, analysts are predicting Greenko’s turnover will surge to between €146m and €189m in that 12-month period. If achieved this will to lift operating profits to between €100m and $118m. Taking a conservative approach and using the lowest estimates, this still means that we can expect pre-tax profits of around €58m and EPS 21.6¢, or 17p. On this basis, the shares are currently being priced on 8 times earnings estimates for fiscal 2016, a very modest valuation for a company growing so quickly and one that is fully funded. Technical set up The strong fundamentals aside, there are sound technical reasons to believe that Greenko shares are overdue a recovery, and one that the forthcoming interim results are likely to prompt. For starters, Greenko's daily candlestick chart is informative as buyers moved in and pushed the price up from the intraday lows around 130p on both Thursday, 16 October and Thursday, 23 October. This created long tails on the chart, highlighting that a bottom could be in place. Secondly, the 14-day relative strength indicator (RSI) is heavily oversold and currently has a reading of 30. It will not take that much good news flow to spark a sharp rally from such oversold conditions.
RE: IC Article by JohnGould
Wed, 29 Oct 2014 12:51:30 GMT
A pre-close trading statement from the company ahead of the release of interim results in early December has confirmed as much. In the six months to end September, Greenko’s power generation soared by almost 90 per cent to 1,225GWh on the same period in 2013. And with a better generation mix - hydro and wind each accounted for around 43 per cent of the total - this helped drive first-half revenues up 120 per cent to around €52m (£41m) and cash profits up 130 per cent to €38m (£30m). Reflecting the seasonality of earnings, analyst Adam Forsyth at brokerage Arden Partners predicts that revenues for the 12 months to end March 2015 will surge over 80 per cent from €53m last fiscal year to €95.9m to drive pre-tax profits up 170 per cent to almost €40m. On this basis, expect adjusted EPS to more than treble to 13.9c, or 11p at current exchange rates. This means that the shares are rated on less than 13 times earnings estimates. Powering on up But that only tells part of the story because Greenko has also confirmed that with all its projects currently under construction fully financed, its operational portfolio is set to exceed 1,000 MW next year, up sharply from 697MW at the end of September. Six hydro projects under construction will add 188MW of generating capacity, of which around half will come from the Dikshu project in Sikkim. That plant is scheduled to enter commercial operations at the start of the 2015 generation season. The other five projects are slated to become operational between late 2015 and early 2016.
IC Article by JohnGould
Wed, 29 Oct 2014 12:48:03 GMT
The discriminate sell-off of small cap shares in the past month has produced some interesting investment opportunities and none more so than Greenko (GKO: 139p), the Indian developer, owner and operator of clean energy projects. The Aim-traded shares in the company have been sold down from around 180p at the end of last month which means you can buy almost 30 per cent more shares for your money now. In fact, the price has retreated to little over where I suggested buying when I initiated coverage at 134p (‘Buy signal flashing green’, 18 March 2013). This is despite the fact that in the past few months the company has refinanced its existing debt facilities by issuing a US$550m (£341m) bond on the Singapore Stock Exchange priced on an 8 per cent coupon and maturing in 2019. The company has also just secured a US$125m (£78m) commitment for the next six years from EIG Global Energy Partners, a company that has $16.4bn invested in the energy sector across more than 290 projects. This replaces a $70m facility with Standard Chartered facility which was due to expire in January. The company will pay a cash coupon of 5 per cent on the new credit line and a payment-in-kind (PIK) coupon of 6 per cent which is payable at maturity. EIG has the option of converting the PIK coupon into Greenko shares at 240p each, or 69 per cent above the current share price. The funding structure is favourable for Greenko as it means that more of its capital can be invested in rolling out its portfolio of highly profitable and cash generative clean energy assets. Interestingly, this is the first investment that EIG has made in the Indian energy industry, highlighting the quality of the assets and investment case for Greenko, in particular.
GKO by the_shareminator
Fri, 24 Oct 2014 13:49:54 GMT
How are GKO to repay bonds due in 2019 with 8% annual coupon and other liabilities due? 2016 forecasts profits of $50m. What is the scope for growth of operations, revenue and margins? B
Nice set of results!! by JohnGould
Fri, 24 Oct 2014 11:20:41 GMT
Should see this tick up a few pips now I think
RE: Bargin by JohnGould
Thu, 16 Oct 2014 11:05:24 GMT
a great LT play especially at these levels.
Bargin by SchiffJnr
Thu, 16 Oct 2014 10:06:40 GMT
Looking very cheap. The market is spooked. The drop has nothing fundamental to do with the business in my opinion.
SP down by SchiffJnr
Fri, 10 Oct 2014 08:38:43 GMT
Market is not liking the EIG investment at all. I imagine its due to the reasons I mentioned yesterday. It seems illogical to refinance bank debt with this form of bond/investment. Its an expensive way of doing it which suggests the banks are too comfortable with GKO. Not great news.
SP fall by mono51
Fri, 10 Oct 2014 08:12:00 GMT
big fall today. Must still be to do with the EIG investment? Not received well? Oil prices falling as well which makes it a cheaper option???? Still think this is a good long term investment