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Re: Break-out? & Attn Tejo by gallant02
Fri, 28 Feb 2014 17:32:00 GMT
Mr P simply summarised where they have come from, how new capacity will treble total output within a year, all going to plan, how all sites close to port de-risk coal deliveries, etc etc.
He quite smugly suggested "wake up, smell the coffee"....! By gallant02
Re: Break-out? & Attn Tejo by JJHBev
Fri, 28 Feb 2014 16:09:00 GMT
A couple of chunky trades in the figures today. the smaller one shows as a sell but it was an "OK" trade so who knows?
When I saw the SP I wondered if there was something in Investors Chronicle which can have a Friday affect but there doesn't seem to be. The only other thing might be Mr Paliwal's presentation yesterday (does anyone know what he said?).
Before I invested here I read (in addition to the company information) the full posting history and I can fully sympathise with how you feel - you have had a long and immensely frustrating time. I do hope that you do see a profit within the next 6-12 months - you deserve it for sticking in (and, of course, there's a bit of self interest in that hope ;-0 ). There's no guarantee at all that today's move will stick but at least for now you are a good deal closer to break even!
Break-out? by gallant02
Fri, 28 Feb 2014 11:02:00 GMT
I know trading volumes are modest, but we appear to be breaking new ground here...? By gallant02
Re: Cenkos forecast by gallant02
Fri, 21 Feb 2014 14:03:00 GMT
I understand your cynical response, but at the same time you originally took a punt on an early stage business with a totally unproven management team and concept.
Move on 2 years or so and we are now in a very different position with management and concept substantially proven. If indeed within the next couple of years the EBITDA does grow to 7x the 2013 numbers as Cenkos suggest then you should be well rewarded for your continuing patience and support. Those numbers also leave room for plenty contingency while still ensuring good upside. By gallant02
Cenkos forecast by tejo
Fri, 21 Feb 2014 13:27:00 GMT
I suppose everyone's perspective on OPG's and brokers statements depends very much on when one bought one's shares and at what price. If you bought in the 50p or 60p range then you are very happy. If you were one of the original investors, like me, and paid 97 p for your shares two years ago, you are far from happy and listen to all the reassuring sounds with some sense of deja vu. What annoys me is the attitude to dividends. After all this time, all we hear is that dividends are very much on their minds for the future. What is needed is a profit and cash flow forecast for the next five years with an indication of the dividend policy in respect of the percentage of profits to be paid as dividends. Actually, by now, I will be happy just to get my investment back since we still have to get over the hurdles of an ever weakening rupee and then, very likely, some Indian hurdle such as a tax investigation or a price cap etc. I truly hope I am wrong but I just feel the good news will not result in eggs from the golden goose! By tejo
Interview with OPG Head of Strategy by AHAY
Thu, 20 Feb 2014 23:09:00 GMT
Interview with OPG Head of Strategy at ProActive Investors. Published 20.2.14.
Cenkos lifts 2014 earnings forecast by gallant02
Thu, 20 Feb 2014 14:55:00 GMT
Another bullish broker report. Prospect of £100m EBITDA run rate within 12 months and possibility of dividend, what else do people want to buy these shares at this price....
"OPG reported a strong operational performance and said new projects were on track in a third-quarter trading update this week, leading broker Cenkos Securities to lift its 2014 earnings forecast by 6%.
Cenkos said it has only tweaked its 2015/16 forecasts but will return to these when OPG releases its full-year results.
OPG has released a strong trading update indicating that the groups existing plants are performing well whilst construction of the two additional plants is progressing ahead of schedule, said Cenkos analyst Andrew Blain.
The India-focused group confirmed that its full-year results are on target to meet City forecasts.
Continued excellence at the operating level has seen the underlying run-rate revenue rise to about 1bn rupee per month, more than double last year, Cenkos said.
It expects OPG to report a run-rate EBITDA approaching £100mln in 12 months time.
The anticipated strong cash generation should enable the company to finance further expansion and commence dividend payments in due course, it added."
OPG at inflection point Shore Capital by gallant02
Tue, 18 Feb 2014 13:02:00 GMT
AIM-listed, Indian power group OPG Power Ventures (LON:OPG) has reached the inflection point in its development.
Thats the view of City firm Shore Capital, which repeated its buy rating following the companys third quarter update.
In it, OPG revealed its two latest electricity plants are on time and on budget, adding that its full-year results look set to meet the Citys forecasts.
Shore analyst Robin Speakman said the update confirmed OPGs development is going to plan, while the underlying business performance is around 20% ahead of his initial expectations.
He points out that revenues are set to rise from March 2013 to March 2016 by 5.6 times, with adjusted pre-tax profits multiplying by 6.6.
Management has delivered on all OPGs stated strategic objectives. The mature valuation for the company is now coming into focus based on high visibility, Speakman said.
We point investors towards OPGs high returns on capital (return on equity rising to 50% in FY2016F) and reducing valuation risk in cash flow analysis.
Investors listened to the buy advice, sending the share price up 4% to 81.8p.
Re: Trading Update Q3 today by gallant02
Mon, 17 Feb 2014 11:16:00 GMT
The PER only appears high because this year's profit figures aren't yet factored in - normality will be restored once the y/e figures are published. The present PER does demonstrate the market's willingness to price in future rises so I expect post y/e results we will see a further rise as the market begins to factor in next year's results.
The recent dip is simply post-statement profit taking IMO. Still a no brainer for me for a substantial rise within 2 years - capacity is effectively due to treble this year and the supply/ demand factors still weigh heavily in the com[any's favour. By gallant02
Re: Trading Update Q3 today by JJHBev
Mon, 17 Feb 2014 10:40:00 GMT
Good morning Claude.
I agree with you that the report is positive. The work on the newbuild projects appears to be progressing very well and I think this is the first time that any indication of the target month for commissioning has been given. I was also very pleased to see the 100% average Plant Load Factor this obviously has a profitability impact but also, hopefully, gives additional confidence for the potential smooth operation of the new plants.
I guess that the negative for some people is that it is going to be a further 12 months or so before we start to see the step change to the P&L. Between now and then all we can hope for (IMO all we should hope for) is continued efficient operation of the existing plants and successful progress on the construction front. Perhaps this is too boring for some and, to be fair, given the recent run up in the SP, they have gone away with a view to coming back later this year (by which time that pesky General Election will be out of the way!). For me, we are another quarter closer to the step change with the company doing everything that is under its control very well.
Also, perhaps, the news flow re Essar Energy has spooked some people!
Looking at current performance I think profitability for this half year will be flat or down on the first half of the year. As the company said in its half year update :-
Whilst rupee tariffs held constant, significant volatility between the US dollar and Indian rupee meant that rupee costs rose sharply over a short period towards the end of the half year making our purchases of imported coal more costly to us and we expect to see the impact of this in the remainder of the year as the coal we purchased during that period is consumed by the plants.
So, I expect the gross profit margin to reduce as compared with the first half and that additional costs (particularly finance costs re the borrowings for the new projects) will offset the increased production levels from the 3 plants. At least the Rupee has recovered from last years lows v the $ and is currently relatively stable. Also the recent long term sales contract provides some protection against increased costs and perhaps gives some indication of the potential sales levels for the new projects?
I continue to hold and have slightly more than three months ago but I remain very largely on the sidelines for now. If there is a serious dip in the SP I will add otherwise I will probably wait for another quarter or so before building up significantly. Logically the SP should really crank up over the coming 12 months assuming the newsflow remains positive/boring but then AIM and Logic dont often go hand in hand!!!
Re: Trading Update Q3 today by bluetrane
Mon, 17 Feb 2014 10:04:00 GMT
Agree there are exceptional prospects to grow this business and management seems to be capable. However, the Rupee is at historical lows versus the pound, down by 25% or so in the last 18 months. This is bound to have an effect on reported earnings. By bluetrane
Trading Update Q3 today by claude reins
Mon, 17 Feb 2014 09:15:00 GMT
Anybody there? The report seems very good to me and on track to meet their very high expectations for the rest of 2014. Yet the price has fallen quite sharply. Is there something there I am missing?
PER perhaps a bit too high? PEG is very low.
Hit 80p and selling kicked in on automatic stop losses?
Maybe this is an opportunity to pick up shares on the fall back.
I remember holding these shares in excess of 100p in recent times, and look forward to them climbing back there in the not too distant future. By claude reins
Re: Future Growth by claude reins
Thu, 13 Feb 2014 12:04:00 GMT
Thanks for that, in the meantime, given the long lead times for new construction, tempus fugit! I still think that they are holding fire so to speak until after the general election. The next parliament is due to start June 1st this year, and the BJP are supposedly heading for victory which would be a radical change. By claude reins
Future Growth by Trabucan
Thu, 13 Feb 2014 08:20:00 GMT
There have been a couple of comments recently about future projects. The CEO's comments in the last accounts are relevant:-
Whilst our focus remains on delivering our existing projects, the confidence we have in our team has led us to study further opportunities for investment and growth based on our core existing skill sets. We expect to provide further updates on these activities in the coming months."
Looks like we might get some details soon.
Re: Trendwatch rec by claude reins
Wed, 12 Feb 2014 11:57:00 GMT
I see - said the blind man! TW is Trendwatch, not Tom Winifreth. Always did have problems with shortened forms which everyone else understands except me! By claude reins
Ajay Paliwal to present by 4276RV
Thu, 20 Feb 2014 15:03:37 GMT
Ajay Paliwal, strategy director will be presenting to investors in Mayfair on 27th February 2014 REGISTRATION: tinyurl.com/qynlck5
opg by jange
Tue, 18 Feb 2014 14:03:56 GMT
AIM-listed, Indian power group OPG Power Ventures (LON:OPG) has reached the inflection point in its development. That’s the view of City firm Shore Capital, which repeated its ‘buy’ rating following the company’s third quarter update. In it, OPG revealed its two latest electricity plants are on time and on budget, adding that its full-year results look set to meet the City’s forecasts. Shore analyst Robin Speakman said the update confirmed OPG’s development is going to plan, while the underlying business performance is around 20% ahead of his initial expectations. He points out that revenues are set to rise from March 2013 to March 2016 by 5.6 times, with adjusted pre-tax profits multiplying by 6.6. “Management has delivered on all OPG’s stated strategic objectives. The mature valuation for the company is now coming into focus based on high visibility,” Speakman said. “We point investors towards OPG’s high returns on capital (return on equity rising to 50% in FY2016F) and reducing valuation risk in cash flow analysis.” Investors listened to the ‘buy’ advice, sending the share price up 4% to 81.8p.
Entry point by B17NNS
Mon, 17 Feb 2014 12:38:11 GMT
Time to get in?
Turning point by MiningPower
Mon, 17 Feb 2014 10:41:29 GMT
Quite a lot going on here recently - new analyst coverage, a long term offtaker providing diversification, strong operating metrics and its largest projects on/ahead of schedule - major turning point - onwards and upwards.
Long term tariff for C3 by Hammer29
Tue, 28 Jan 2014 07:56:48 GMT
Really great RNS today. Shows OPG is here for the long term and adds in another de-risk factor. Should help the sp re-rate in 2014 that many, including Investec, expect. Hopefully that's what has started last week. Well done OPG! Always good with news flow
Investec by wazooba
Tue, 21 Jan 2014 11:03:33 GMT
Investec starts with a Buy rating, price target of 120p. 2014 could be a transformational year for Opg.
Large sells by Hammer29
Wed, 11 Dec 2013 17:26:02 GMT
Looks like an institution selling today. May cause SP drift
huge by langyy
Thu, 21 Nov 2013 13:16:20 GMT
RNS by Hammer29
Thu, 21 Nov 2013 07:55:56 GMT
206% profit increase on 6 month figures. Chennai III now really contributing and deliver well on time and in budget Gujarat brought forward 3 months IMO, a momentous RNS in the OPG journey. I'm not selling a single share, huge market demand that isn't going away
Excellent by wazooba
Thu, 21 Nov 2013 07:45:03 GMT
Excellent rns. All looks well and on schedule . Next year looks transformational for Opg in spite of currency exchange rates. Projects ahead of schedule and within budget. If this does not move the sp then truly do not know what will. Hold on for 100p and above.
rns by langyy
Thu, 21 Nov 2013 07:22:55 GMT
RNS by Hammer29
Wed, 23 Oct 2013 17:07:18 GMT
Great news today. Paves the way for good, de-risked SP growth as we head into 2014 when we open up our 2 new projects, which will transform our EBITDA. OPG is a professional outfit, who have always delivered so far. New projects fully funded in a market where demand heavily outweighs supply. I'm targeting 120p+ within 12 months based on the extra MW coming on line. OPG is not yet on a lot of radars, but more news flow should change this and bring the sp growth with it. Cheers
two by langyy
Tue, 24 Sep 2013 11:25:08 GMT
RE: Rupee vs GBP by daveycaferacer
Tue, 03 Sep 2013 18:09:50 GMT
The weakness of the Rupee against the dollar and sterling has indeed had quite an effect on OPG as it collects it revenue in Rupees but reports in GBP. That said, we have a lot more Capacity coming on stream next year so whatever happens to the Rupee in the short term, this is a good long term investment in my opinion. Personally I would not invest in OPG for short term gains, this is surely a long term investment. The big plus point is that OPG is fully funded and all plants under construction are fully funded, so there won't be any dilution by the issung of more shares to fund them. I consider OPG to be a great long term hold.
Rupee vs GBP by davetherave1
Tue, 03 Sep 2013 11:33:51 GMT
Ive heard about these through a mate so did a fair bit of research last night. Seems a good prospect to me. Obviously its quiet effected by the strenght of the Rupee which has taken a bit of a battering recently as markets seem dubious about India's nation bank. Anyone know anymore about this and is the rupee likely to recover anytime soon? What what I can see, if the rupee falls, so does this.... but assume that if rupee strengthens, then this will too