AIM Soiree Butler Rurelec RUR.L

RurelecRurelec PLC was established to develop, own and operate power generation capacity in Latin America. Rurelec is managed by a team with a strong track record in developing power projects worldwide and with considerable experience in the electricity sector in Latin America. Rurelec's main business consists in the ownership and development of power generation facilities on the national grid and in isolated areas, selling electricity on commercial terms. The Company is now a significant power generator in Bolivia and Argentina.
Take me straight down to the chat Rurelec is trading below the moving 50 day average and below the moving 200 day average on above-average volume.
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  • Re: Not in Public Issue by Leicesterboy
    Fri, 27 Feb 2015 20:44:00 GMT

    Thank you GFD, did look at LSE the BB looks more activity than this one, but good to hear from you !
    All will be revealed no doubt in the fullness of time as Confucius he say ! But there is no way in the world that RUR as some have intimated will go bust, if they do I will give up investing as Sterling will have to do ! Never get yourself in a corner ! LB By Leicesterboy
  • Re: Not in Public Issue by goodflyingduck
    Fri, 27 Feb 2015 19:18:00 GMT

    It's not beyond the realms of possibility that the large block sales are those being made by the same person who bought in 0.5m tranches some little while ago. At the time of those purchases, I opined that the buyer might be one of the suitors/potential partners; it's equally possible that it was one of the "rejects" who, unhappy with having been eliminated, decided to try a little sp manipulation with a view to making an offer for all the SA assets. That would certainly have the effect of throwing a cat amongst the pigeons and might account for the silence. There are other scenarios but you're right, LB, these sales are not, now, impacting the sp so the mms must be happy to hold in the sure and certain knowledge that the demand will be there when the News breaks. GFD By goodflyingduck
  • Re: News due soon ... by goodflyingduck
    Fri, 27 Feb 2015 19:01:00 GMT

    I don't think we're a million miles apart LB. Probably no more than £5m (and what's that between friends ?). My conservative valuation for Argentina was £16m and a "best guess" minimum value of £7m for Peru. Add the LSE poster's £28m for Chile and we're up to £51m + IPC. Chile at £28m did seem undervalued to me, too, given the cost of the two turbines bought from IPSA for £16.2m (of which £3.2m remains payable, as those of you invested in both RUR and IPSA will be acutely aware). One thing's for sure, PE as acting CEO of IPSA isn't going to mess up on either side of that deal. GFD By goodflyingduck
  • Not in Public Issue by Leicesterboy
    Fri, 27 Feb 2015 17:50:00 GMT

    Shares not in Public Issue is 72.867 % therefore 27.133% being dealt on Stockmarket which equates to 152,321,294 and we traded 319523 excluding the 2 sale of 1,500,000 nobody is really selling something in the wind !
    LB By Leicesterboy
  • Wonder who he is ? by Leicesterboy
    Fri, 27 Feb 2015 16:14:00 GMT

    Selling 500000 early on and then 1,000,000 later in the day still at 3 pence no drop in the price MMs obviously think they can shift them !
    What is going on ?
    LB By Leicesterboy
  • Re: News due soon ... by Leicesterboy
    Fri, 27 Feb 2015 15:43:00 GMT

    Not sure the Chilean assets are worth just £28 million they have bought 2 Turbines for £16 million for the illapa project, Independent Power who they bought in June 2013 made £2.1 million for the Year, in the Annual Report they state in the report that they were looking at $30 million for long term Equity partners for the Chilean and Peruvian Assets not sure what percentage but they seem to go for 50% so I would say they are worth $60 million or £40 million plus Argentina plus Independent Power so we get up to well past 9.5 nearly 11 pence . Anyway its all figures, and what is something worth depends whether you are a buyer or a seller !
    LB By Leicesterboy
  • Re: News due soon....... by broomfielder
    Fri, 27 Feb 2015 14:58:00 GMT

    Thanks LB and GFD for your thoughts and observations.
    I find myself in broad agreement with you both.
    Its long been a puzzle to me to attempt to understand the scale and risk profile associated with Sterling Trust's holding. It has never made sense to me and the sheer size of this 'overhang' of shares has stopped me topping up in the past. Today's sp would greatly help reducing my break even price but I simply struggle to understand what I am buying into at the moment.
    I am not sure just what power Sterling are able exert in the current negotiations but it cannot be insignificant. In the past they have been (perceived to be) passive....that almost certainly will change if the possibility now exists where major disposals are being discussed.
    It would explain the ongoing delays and perhaps more significantly effectively a total silence on where we (Rurelec) are actually headed. Individual asset sales or disposal of part of the business? We just don't know but the official information vacuum naturally sponsors thoughts of wider change.
    LB/GFD - Rgds and keep up the good work gents.
    B By broomfielder
  • Re: News due soon ... by goodflyingduck
    Fri, 27 Feb 2015 13:06:00 GMT

    Hi LB. Well, I'm impressed with your maths if nothing else ! The Chilean assets alone are worth £28m according to one poster on LSE so that covers the Accumulated Capital Losses.

    Other assets in Argentina and Peru amount to at least £18m, from memory and then there's IPC which I think will be retained if, indeed, a take-over is in the offing. Interested party discussions with Sterling Trust would not, IMHO, give rise to the need for disclosure but you can bet your bottom $ that, if a deal is to be done, it will come with a BoD recommendation for acceptance by the shareholders. NAV, from memory, was stated to be 9.5p and we've been assured of a premium to cost of any partnership deal so I would expect that to hold good with any offer for the whole of the SA assets - 10.5p ??? That would give sufficient money to clear the outstanding balance payable to IPSA, too.

    Idle speculation, perhaps, but there has to be some reason for the silence.

    GFD

    By goodflyingduck
  • Re: News due soon ... by Leicesterboy
    Fri, 27 Feb 2015 12:34:00 GMT

    Lets hope GFD, I would tend to agree with you on Sale of SA Assets, as if full takeover I think we would have had an offer, also not to harp on about it but Sterling must want to realise some of their over 50% Investment at 9.6 pence per share they have or did have at 31st December 2013 303,092303 in shares so 54% of the company showing a Loss of 6.6 pence per share so roughly £20 million on top of the Accumulated Capital Losses of £26 million ! Thought I was rubbish at Investing ! So Accumulated Losses to date of £46 million ! Sterling Trusts accounts at 31st December 2014 will be a sorry sight as there Investment in RUR was valued at £38.8 million at 31st December 2013 and now its worth £9.1 million Their Balance sheet is totally insolvent ! It all points to a Cash realisation in one form or another but not at 3 pence per share.
    It is going to be an interesting month ahead.
    LB By Leicesterboy
  • News due soon ... by goodflyingduck
    Fri, 27 Feb 2015 11:20:00 GMT

    ... if only on the final draw-down on the Radix facility, said to be before the end of February. But I think there has to be more. I suspect a take-over play. Someone is systematically selling 500K tranches to keep the sp pegged. To my mind that can only point towards an offer, probably for the whole of the SA assets leaving RUR with IPC and cash in the Bank (and, hopefully, our pockets too) to switch the focus of their activities away from SA ... perhaps to Africa and Europe ?

    IMHO something really big is in the offing. Fingers crossed.

    GFD By goodflyingduck
  • Re: deja vu by Leicesterboy
    Fri, 27 Feb 2015 10:01:00 GMT

    I tend to agree with your post, but having been too optimistic on the Bolivian Court decision, and having heard PE speak and an Oxford Graduate at that, I cannot believe he could be that stupid again to be over optimistic re the Sale of the SA assets.
    There was no reason to transfer the Share Premium Account to P and L unless things were progressing to the Sale and why announce potential Dividends unless there were concrete agreements in place.
    But like you there is a very big slowness about the whole process, and therefore an element of doubt.
    I think if there fails to be a Sale of shares in the SA assets then I think Sterling will want a Sale of the business, and that maybe what is going on now, the "blue chip" businesses that wanted a share of Rurelec Assets may want the the whole lot ! On whatever basis we are very under valued like many on AIM. The Radix Loan is due for Repayment at the end of March !
    LB By Leicesterboy
  • deja vu by broomfielder
    Thu, 26 Feb 2015 22:54:00 GMT

    The lengthening wait for (hopefully very) positive news from the Company appears to be resurrecting memories of our disappointing Arbitration settlement and what appeared to be a never ending process.
    The longer the wait this time around the more anxiety it creates as once again we have to rely on the 'trust us, discussions are complicated etc' statements occasionally coming from Peter Earl on potential partnerships / disposals. Of course they are difficult.
    We can't expect details until these discussions are concluded but its also difficult to gauge the shape of the Company even in the short term such is the significance of each potential deal to Rurelec's future.
    The sp will obviously continue to drift in such circumstances and it seems a long time since Dividends and further share listings were apparently imminent.
    However there should be many positives to emerge in the near to medium term and unlike so many of my other AIM investments there should be substance behind hoping for a moderate / good increase in Rurelec's share price within the next 12 months. By broomfielder
  • Re: very undervalued and unloved by Leicesterboy
    Thu, 26 Feb 2015 21:03:00 GMT

    It is an something must break before 31st March 2015 ! BWTFDIK !
    I deal in £ not dollars, I am just amazed we have heard nothing loads going on in the Back round, had a joke with my broker, told him I was unable to lose as much this year as last as the Shares I have are basket cases ! Still buying though but just 3 to 4 companies !
    LB By Leicesterboy
  • very undervalued and unloved by here and now
    Thu, 26 Feb 2015 10:10:00 GMT

    So I have bought a bunch and averaged down.

    Market Cap is $26million

    no debt, $6 million cash as of june 2014, Argentinian assets, peruvian assets, 3 turbines which are on the books at $30million.

    projects in progress in Peru(several small and one big) Chile (v big) Argentine expansion. Sell down and partnerships in these deals all in progress and due over the next few months.

    this must be grossly under valued By here and now
  • Re: Hands UP ! by Leicesterboy
    Wed, 25 Feb 2015 17:18:00 GMT

    Hi LG great to have you on board, but please do your research before you post utter tripe, Sterling own over 50% and average price is over 9 pence ! Watch this space !
    LB By Leicesterboy
  • have a by Spac3y
    Fri, 27 Feb 2015 17:40:23 GMT

    Cracking weekend! My beer is calling 😊
  • RE: lol by KAMEL17
    Fri, 27 Feb 2015 17:07:46 GMT

    please believe me there is no disappointment whatsoever that our friend is not here with the 'daily dollop'. I was merely being playful as I'm so glad it is the weekend
  • lol by Spac3y
    Fri, 27 Feb 2015 16:52:03 GMT

    Sorry to disappoint Kamel, but unfortunately or fortunately I have never owned any ipsa shares and unlike some, have always been brought up with manners. I have a very balanced view on up and downsides of all stocks I have an interest in because having been blinkered in the very early days of share buying, you learn from those experiences where companies that should have performed way past where RUR are, only to watch them be wasted away.
  • RE: Recent sale volumes by Swooped
    Fri, 27 Feb 2015 16:43:51 GMT

    lol AIF with manners, nah I think we can safely say on that score, it won't happen.
  • Recent sale volumes by KAMEL17
    Fri, 27 Feb 2015 16:38:25 GMT

    my own view is that when a lightly traded stock suddenly becomes more actively traded either way then something is in the air. now when the volumes are sells - it normally indicates an exodus (or at least the illusion of an exodus) from the stock. In this instance there may be quite a few shareholders with @ 0.5m or 1m shares - it is after all a penny share now. What does not quite compute though is that there appears to be an exodus of those holders in relatively quick succession. The truth of the matter is that it is difficult to comprehend this movement without news. Of course there is downside here- the company may even go bust although this is unlikely and as such the share price may not be on the floor however it must be mighty close. News of some sort is surely not far off and I suspect even the speculators would await the final roll of the dice before exiting. The movements are in all probability some form of manipulation however my view remains as it always has been in that the SP in the intervening period is of little consequence when compared to the wider question of whether the Board will deliver or not. Everything else is fluff Good weekend all and here's one to ponder Is the redoubtable AIF the same person as spac3y?. Has he been re-incarnated with manners ( oh joy if he has!)
  • Manipulation by Swooped
    Fri, 27 Feb 2015 15:52:25 GMT

    Now I am, as everyone knows bullish, what I am not is a conspiracy theorist, but at times one has to realise the good old saying that; "just because I am paranoid does not mean they are not out to get me" and in that vein I can quite confidently say that imo someone IS trying to depress the sp, often as a precursor to trying to buy the company or at least a large holding, not sure what's going on here but for sure things are afoot and with the sp this depressed I would not at all be surprised to see a bid come in, certainly over the last couple of weeks we have had approx 6 million plus shares traded in specifically batches of 500k and 750k, (and another 1 million just gone through) I would bet we are about to get some news very shortly.
  • RE: BUY by goodflyingduck
    Fri, 27 Feb 2015 14:35:04 GMT

    It gets worse ! The 2 x 300K trades on 25.2 were corrected on 26.2 and substituted with 2 x 150K "trades" listed as Sells also which, again, are clearly a cross-over. Is it just me or do these "errors" seem to be becoming more commonplace on AIM ? They're certainly not confined to RUR. GFD
  • Someone ... by goodflyingduck
    Fri, 27 Feb 2015 10:55:06 GMT

    ... is sure working hard to keep the sp pegged with those 500K Sells. Why ? GFD
  • Radix by goodflyingduck
    Fri, 27 Feb 2015 10:32:36 GMT

    Well, today's the last business day of February so we should be hearing shortly as to whether or not the balance of the Radix facility has been drawn-down and, if not, why not. Hopefully, the BoD will take that opportunity of updating shareholders on the other news that we await; I'm sure that they know that anything other than a full resume of where we are (and where we are destined) will have a deleterious effect on the sp so I'm looking forward to something that gives us all cause for cheer - we have been lauded for our patience through the difficult times and promised better yet to come. IMHO the time for that can not be delayed much longer. I believe that we can take succour from the fact that the Co has said that they have no intention of diluting shareholder value and overheads are now likely to be being met by generation receipts. IPC is profitable and I expect that they will not be a draw on corporate overheads; it is quite normal for consultants to be remunerated on a regular basis when they are engaged on a project. IMHO there would have been no good reason why the Co would have gone to the time, trouble and expense of the Capital Reduction if they could not be quite certain that profits would be generated through the partnership deals - to imagine otherwise would, indeed, be the stuff of Machiavellian manipulation - a theory to which I do not subscribe. It's for those reasons that I remain optimistic that good news will soon be forthcoming. Certainly, I hope so. GFD
  • Good Evening by Spac3y
    Thu, 26 Feb 2015 18:56:51 GMT

    Well looks like we have quite a mixed bag today. The unders, the overs, the conspiracy-theoristsAll indeed. We are well aware RUR has some assets that to book are not where the marker cap should be. However, anything is only worth what people pay for them. Right now, never a truer word said. Looking at the 300k sales, it appears a transfer of sorts. Equally someone has been dumping £15K blocks. The argentiian asset itself is profitable, if it is sold locally. However with the currency swap, it is not. So lets hope for a sale in that region for the stake. Equally, the reason RUR have had to look at the Radix facility is due to not wanting to pay out the monies owed to IPSA from the cash that was left over...whether they could, or could not. Working capital is being workedyou can bet your last £ on that one. Im just wondering, given some selling of blocks, will we see a further funding manouvere. If the deals can be concluded then not, and lets face it, any sale will be a "preium" to the current market cap. However, one has to wonder if their is a further delay, will their be a need to raise some more funds for working capital needs. Kamel, keep posting, I like the balance. Equally swooped you have been very balanced as of late so it is appreciated. Jeddicatt, is it a buy...a sell...or.
  • RE: under valued and unloved by KAMEL17
    Thu, 26 Feb 2015 18:20:31 GMT

    Clearly we do not disagree otherwise why would we both be invested in this company! The point I had made is that the company is not debt free as you had suggested. This is palpably untrue and is simply correcting your factually incorrect post. The fact that it had $6m in cash in June mattered not if it has none of it now. I merely tried to point out the absurdity of your post as you had penned it (and stated why). Your new wee buddy jeddicat has jumped to your assistance with some equally absurd nonsense. He has form here.. he thinks it is all a conspiracy and that all buys are sells and that the naughty market makers are cheating him at every turn. Anyone with any sense knows that in periods of news inactivity that they will distort things. I'll post as I see fit both honestly and without fear or favour as i have always done. By all means listen to jeddicat if your boredom threshold is really high. Good luck with your investment here.
  • Re Argentina by EM202020
    Thu, 26 Feb 2015 13:29:33 GMT

    operating profitably! 1) That was 8 months ago - perhaps wasn't so easy last 8 months to operate profitably in a country experiencing severe economic challenges, that is in default to its creditors and squeezing power company margins is an easy way for the Authorities to preserve cash. 2) If you can't extract the "profit" from Argentina then how do you pay your corporate overhead? I guess there will be a full year / trading statement sometime soon so we shall see.
  • Argentina does ... by goodflyingduck
    Thu, 26 Feb 2015 13:10:03 GMT

    ... operate profitably - it's only the conversion to Sterling, in the Accounts, that makes it appear unprofitable. This was explained in the last set of results. GFD
  • Re Under valued or Over Valued by EM202020
    Thu, 26 Feb 2015 12:31:20 GMT

    Following PEs decision to take on the overhead of IPC plus Rurelec's existing cost base they would have run through all available cash so as of today, they are probably using some or all of that Radix loan to keep going in the short term in the hope that they can pull something out of the hat in terms of selling something to raise some cash. As to whether RUR is over or under valued depends on whether or not anyone values / wants what Rurelec owns sufficient to part with some cash and at a value / on terms that RUR management deem acceptable. Time will tell but given PE's historic enthusiasm for shouting about good news and prospects perhaps a tad prematurely it is rather telling there has been a scarcity of news recently. Sort of indicates to me that he can't, or is unwilling, to get a deal done but we shall see. In terms of value, management has spent £25m or so (including turbines) on the Chilean projects and owns 50% of EdS plus a [$] loan to EdS plus the Peru hydro 5MW and some development projects in Peru and one assumes some of the overhead is working on consultancy projects to try and cover their costs. My personal gut feel is that currently RUR is worth more than 3.125p but not multiples of that. If however, Rurelec management have made a tactical error on the project selection in Chile and the Argentine problems are insurmountable in terms of extracting cash and / or trying to operate a power plant profitably in Argentina under the current regime / rules then RUR is a busted flush. Time will tell.
  • Re: under valued and unloved by jeddicat
    Thu, 26 Feb 2015 11:41:37 GMT

    Hearandnow- I have to agree with your last post, by all accounts Camel has quite a stash of these from what he writes anyway? In fact i recall him writing, not long ago, that he has so much stock in here that he has no need to 'Top-Up'! Beware of the Camel with three 'humps' and shares in Rulelec. Camel - Do you have a mortgage, and if you do, does that mean your broke? I'd forget about the training you got from AI? if I were you my friend. RBS is what we call 'debt ridden', not RUR. Regards as always!